Stat of the Day, 21st May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2014

It was neither ours nor James Fanshawe's day yesterday. He had six runners out, four of whom were fancied to do well, but the best he could manage was a pair of runners-up.

We were on Emulating who was sent off at our advised 3/1 odds, but he didn't seem to run his usual race and hit the front early. He tucked in behind the leaders, flattered to deceive before running out of steam.

It was quite disappointing to be honest, but there's no time to dwell on it, when we've another race to consider, the...

3.00 Lingfield:

Where Silk Train is trainer David Simcock's only runner of the day. She's due to be partnered by Oisin Murphy, claiming 3lbs and she looks a decent proposition at 3/1 BOG with Bet365, for the following reasons...

1. David Simcock's horses are going well right now, he has had eight runners out in the last week, notching up two wins and four other placers.

2. He also has a good recent record here at Lingfield, with 23 of his last 100 runners at the track coming home victorious, amassing 69.5pts profit in the process.

If we restrict our search of those 100 runners to those priced at 8/1 or shorter, we get 16 winners from 58 (27.6% SR) for 29.04pts (+50.1% ROI), whilst the sub-6/1 runners have a record of 14/45 (31.1% SR) for 23.94pts (+53.2% ROI).

3. Silk Train is David's only runner of the day and when he is only represented by one horse, he quite often brings home the purse. When his sole runner of the day is priced between Evens and 8/1 in a flat handicap, he has won 26 of 98 races with that 26.5% strike rate accruing 58.22pts profits from a 1pt level stake: and ROI of 59.4%.

4. Talented rising star Oisin Murphy takes the ride and claims three pounds. When Oisin has claimed 3 or 5 pounds in the past on horses sent off below 6/1, he has ridden 35 winners from 119 attempts. This represents a 29.4% strike rate producing 37.25pts proit from level stakes (+31.3% ROI).

5. Oisin, however, is just the latest of 3lb claiming jockeys employed by David Simcock in recent years and he has a good record with them. Since the start of 2010, 3lb claiming jockeys have won 24 of their 131 rides for the Simcock yard, an 18.3% strike rate for 83.7pts profit, or 63.9% of stakes invested.

6. Incidentally, this is just the second time that Oisin Murphy has ridden for David Simcock after they teamed up with a 7/1 winner (Mindurownbusiness) at Yarmouth three weeks ago.

Silk Train only made four appearances last year and was progressing nicely at 1m4f (finishes of 421) before rounding her season off in disappointing style at Newmarket in November.

She finished stone last of 12 runners, but that was up at Class 3 level of Soft ground. She was outpaced and outclassed that day, but drops two grades and 4lbs in weight for this one, and that doesn't include the jockey claim, so she's effectively half a stone better off and (in my opinion!) has a better pilot on board.

There's plenty to like about this 4 yr old and I'm happy to place my 1pt win bet on Silk Train at 3/1 BOG with Bet365. Only three other firms have priced this one up so far and they're all a quarter to a half a point lower than I've taken, as you'll see if you just... here for the latest betting on the 3.00 Lingfield

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Here is today's racecard.

3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 21st May 2014

  1. Chris Worrall Post author

    2 non-runners here, folks.
    25p Rule 4 deduction puts us at 9/4 BOG.
    Current price (1.15pm) is 15/8, so we’re 20% above the market.

  2. Blokeshead

    I missed the boat – or so I thought – due to w*rk today. By the time I saw this tip, there were already only three runners, and the odds were pretty crap (and pretty similar) on all three of them. However, the place market had the other two (the favourites) at under 1.50 each. I thought Chris would be bound to have picked either the winner or runner-up in a 3-horse race, so I simply laid both of the others. One won, one lost, but the win paid more than double the loss. I won’t get rich on it, but a profit’s a profit.

    Thanks Chris!

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      That’s one way of looking at it, I suppose.
      Obviously I’d never have got involved had I known only three would run.
      And I thought we’d got the winner late on, but it wasn’t to be.

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