Stat of the Day, 21st May 2013
Another good day yesterday as Sofia's Number One defied the hike in the weights to comfortably win by a good couple of lengths whilst easing down! He'd been raised 4lbs for yesterday's run, so we shall see where he goes next. His next mark may well be a step too far, but time will tell.
After a decidedly lean time, May is going well for us at SotD and we hope to keep the run going with success in a Class 5 Turf handicap. Twelve runners are expected to line up to tackle two miles (and nine yards!) on ground said to be good to soft for the....
Former Course & Distance winners returning to Nottingham in form (ie winners last time out, wherever they ran) tend to fare very well here. Since the start of 2011, twenty-nine such runners have appeared at this track, with ten of them going on to win. This 34.48% strike rate has brought in level stakes profits of 36.39pts (+125.5% ROI) at Industry SP and 42.46pts at Betfair SP (+146.4%). The record of horses priced at 6/1 or under is an equally impressive 7/20.
There are two runners at Nottingham today that won last time out and have CD next to them on the racecards: Danzoe runs in the 5.50 race, but looks like being asked to shoulder a little too much weight today and is also a little longer in the market than I'd like for SotD purposes, but remains a reasonable E/W bet. All of this leaves us with today's selection, Zarosa.
Zarosa is a relatively lightly raced 4yr old filly who has blossomed after being asked to compete in longer races. She failed to shine in any of her three maidens, finishing 13th of 13, 11/13 and 11/13 all over a totally inadequate one mile. Her handicap debut was over 1m4f and whilst she finished mid-division that day, she was crying out for further. Since then, she has made the step up to two miles and her results after the step up reads 333811. She won here over course and distance two starts ago back in October and was then rested until she reappeared at Newcastle five weeks ago. She was sent there to run over ten and a half furlongs, probably as a sharpener for the coming season, but she ran well enough to take that race by a length and a half and she seemed full of running at the business end of the race.
Any repeat of that form from five weeks ago, coupled with her ability to handle this course and distance should see her very well involved again today, provided she's not left to languish too far off the pace. The call today is a 1 pt win bet on Zarosa at 9/2 BOG, utilising some of the winnings from Bet365 today, but at the time I wrote this, both Coral and Paddy Power were matching that price. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...
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