Stat of the Day, 21st March 2013
No joy for us yesterday, with Moss Cloud running as though he was under a cloud, and beaten after about half a mile. It was scant consolation that a number of the other fancied runners also ran poorly at Haydock yesterday. Scant consolation indeed.
To today, and a trip to the Welsh borders for the...
Philip Hobbs has an excellent record at this track, and has saddled bundles of winners for a very healthy profit. He has just one runner today, Thomas Wild, in the handicap chase. So let's take a close look at his record in such races.
Since 2003, Hobbs has saddled 73 handicap chasers here, and fourteen of them have won, for a profit at SP of twenty points. Backing them each way would have yielded thirty winning bets, and a profit of 37.06 units. Not too bad at all.
There are only six runners today, so there are only two places to go at, and Thomas Wild is the fifth choice in the market as I write.
No matter, for I trust the trainer in situations like this. Thomas Wild won a handicap chase over this trip on his final start last year. It was also his first run over fences, so that was a pretty good effort. Since then, he fell when vying for the lead with a mile to go of another three mile handicap chase on his seasonal debut this year.
That race was significant for two reasons: firstly, he was prominent and going well when falling; and, secondly, it was run in heavy ground, suggesting that he acts fine on today's going.
He has since had one more run, a moderate enough effort in a handicap hurdle, and he should be fit and ready to go here. Clearly, he needs to jump round, but he's sure to have been well schooled and he looks a bit of value in a tight-knit handicap.
I'll be going each way for the quarter odds if second, at 15/2 Best Odds Guaranteed, with Stan James. And, as you can see, they'll give you a free tenner to bet if you open an account and bet a tenner.
Of course, prices can change, so make sure you...