Stat of the Day, 21st July 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2014

Saturday's contest in the gloom and rain at Ripon provided a great end to a fantastic week for us all here at SotD. Robert Winston gave a near perfect ride to enable Border Bandit to win for the 4th time on 6 starts this year. Our 11/4 shot attracted plenty of money before returning home victorious as a 6/4 favourite.

He was patiently ridden and then asked for an effort inside the final furlong, which saw him sweep into the lead and he still had enough in reserve to repel a resurgent Shouranour (who was 9lbs better off) late on, eventually getting home by half a length.

Picture postcard time today, as we head off to Cumbria for the...

4.45 Cartmel: 

And a set of stats revolving around a female trainer, a female jockey and a male horse with Pink in his name who hasn't won any of his last 13 starts across three codes of racing. It might not sound so promising at first, so let me tell you more...

The lady trainer in question...

...is none other than SotD stalwart Dianne Sayer, who I like to keep an eye on in NH handicap contests, purely because it's profitable to do so, even if strike rates aren't always the best, but I talked a little about that last Wednesday in my review roundup.

Since 2009, her horses have won 92 of 838 races and whilst an 11% strike rate is a touch lower than normal SotD stats, it's actually very healthy from such a large sample size and is also an excellent starting point to work from. 80.3pts is the profit from those runners, a respectable ROI of 9.6%.

And it is the handicappers that are most successful, with a record of 89 from 704 (12.6% SR) for 19.7pts (+27.1% ROI) : a far more palatable set of figures indeed. Those figures obviously include all her handicappers from short priced favourites to longshot no-hopers, neither of which interest us here at SotD, so we can just apply some simple price bands and come up with the following:

2/1 to 20/1 : 80 winners from 552 races at a strike rate of 14.5% for 154pts (+27.9% ROI) profit and
2/1 to 6/1 : 50/203 (24.6% SR) for 61.3pts (+30.2% ROI). Since 2012, this lower price bracket has given up 32 winners from 125 (25.6% SR) for an excellent return of 51.3pts, or 41% of all stakes.

Dianne's success is repeated here at Cartmel...

In the same 2009-14 time period we started with above, she has saddled up 14 winners from just 67 runners at a rate of 20.9% with the 26.7pts level stakes profits equating to a 39.9% return on investment. As with her general figures, she has done better in handicap competition with a 12/56 (21.4% SR) record generating 16.7pts (+29.8% ROI) profit and we can, once again, filter those results by price as follows...

2/1 to 10/1 : 12/45 (26.7% SR) for 27.7pts (+61.6% ROI) and
2/1 to 7/1 : 11/33 (33.33% SR) for 26.8pts (+81.3% ROI) which has since 2012 become 6/20(30% SR) for 18pts (+90% ROI) profit.

So, who is the jockey?

Today's jockey is Lucy Alexander, who has ridden well in the past here at Cartmel with an 8/45 record over the last couple of years. This 17.8% strike is more than respectable, whilst the profits from her winners is astronomical at 131.9pts or 293% of stakes invested.

Lucy had only ridden for Dianne Sayer on 21 previous occasions, but her 5 winners equates to 23.8% of those rides and the 15.5pts profit gives an ROI of 73.6%. The combination has two winners from three here at Cartmel for a tidy 9.26pts profit.

The Alexander/Sayer combination is also very effective when them money down with a 4/11 (36.4% SR) record with horses priced 2/1 to 6/1 producing 10.8pts (+98.1% ROI) profit to date.

Dianne has five runners here today, whilst Lucy is booked for two rides, but they only come together with one horse.

And that horse...

...is Sergeant Pink, who currently trades at around the 4/1 BOG mark. He's a horse of undoubted ability, having won 8 of his previous 38 NH races (6/30 over fences), but hasn't won a race of any description in his last thirteen attempts (7 chases, 2 A/W outings and four on the flat). He does, however, have a record of 112 here at Cartmel, all over today';s course and distance, including victory in this very event last year under today's jockey Lucy Alexander, who has ridden him to victory three times in seven starts to date.

He had an excellent summer last year, winning five times in nine efforts, but has struggled at the weights since then. He looked like he was coming back to his best last time out over fences, when beaten late on over today's course and distance back in May. He has since finished third on the flat over 1m4f to keep him sharp and now that he has dropped down to a mark of 118, looks dangerous here today.

He's now rated 3lbs lower than when winning at Uttoxeter last September and when Dianne Sayer's horses have dropped to below their last winning mark and haven't won for at least 10 races, they tend to pick up form again. When horses fitting that criteria have been sent off in the 9/4 to 11/1 odds range over the last four seasons, 6 of 35 (17.1% SR) have been winners with the 17.7pts profit equating to 50.7% of stakes invested. Interestingly, the record of these horses here at Cartmel is 2/6 for 11.8pts profit!

Lots to go at there and plenty of compelling reasons as to why Sergeant Pink should haul himself off the cold list today. Due to his apparent lack of form, we're getting a decent price about him and I'm placing my 1pt win bet on Sergeant Pink with Hills, who are offering 4/1 BOG. That same price is currently available with Paddy Power, but for all the other firms' prices, you should...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.45 Cartmel

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5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 21st July 2014

  1. mike munro

    If you had seen Lucy Alexander riding at Cartmel on Saturday you may have thought twice about backing her ride, but I will as always follow your advice.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Lucy is a top top jockey. All jockeys have poor rides, and it’s always best to judge them on their overall numbers. Hers are exceptional.

      Best,
      Matt

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