Stat of the Day: 21st July 2012
Yet another abandoned meeting yesterday meant my 33/1 poke was never to be, and we're back to familiar hunting grounds today, and old friends, in the…
It's Cartmel, so the first man I look to is SotD's old mate, Richard Ford. A local chap, and a course specialist, Ford has figures in recent years of seven winners from 28 runners (25% strike rate).
His chase figures are even more eye-catching, with five of those winners coming over the larger impediments, from just a dozen starters, and yielding 25.5 point profit.
Today's sole runner is Colditz, a course specialist, at least since Ford acquired him. In those two years, Colditz has run nine times, four of them here. His record elsewhere is 45212, and his record at Cartmel is 1331.
That last 1 was over course and distance, and on soft ground, in this class.
He has gone up a fair whack in the handicap for those consistent performances, but is still racing off a lowly mark of 88, bad enough to ensure he remains in Class 5 company. It's my view that the class of opposition is always more important than the weight carried, so the 11-06 here ought not to be a worry.
Actually, when Tony McCoy rode him to victory on Colditz' last start here, he lugged eleven stone, and today's burden is reduced to 11-01 by Harry Challoner's five pound allowance.
It's a competitive race for the grade, but with conditions all in our favour, 4/1 BOG looks fair enough.
Click here for the latest odds for the 3.35 Cartmel.