Stat of the Day, 21st December 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.20 Southwell : Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned after the refund cut-off point)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,213 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here on the back of four straight wins, a run of form that represents his entire record from the last winter season and his entire chasing career to date. He was last seen winning by five lengths over much further (3m1f) on similarly soft ground and now attempts to pick up where he left off some 41 weeks ago.

I'm not too concerned about the layoff, as the first of those four wins came a year and a day ago, having been off the track for 36 weeks, so he's expected to go well fresh again today and with regards to his so-far perfect 4 from 4 record over fences...

  • he's 3/3 on Soft ground, the other win was on heavy
  • he has won over 2m4f previously, but has the stamina to stay 3m1f
  • today's jockey Brian Hughes has ridden all four wins
  • all four wins were on left handed tracks
  • he's 3 from 3 as a 7 yr old

Both trainer Nicky Richards and jockey Brian Hughes have good records here at Newcastle and that's a fairly well worn statistical path and is denoted on your racecard with the green icons, so I'm not going there today. Instead, I'm hopefully going to tell you something you don't already know about Glittering Love's suitability for the task, based on his breeding.

He's by Winged Love, whose offspring are 57 from 291 (19.6% SR) for 68.9pts (+23.7% ROI) in UK NH handicaps on Soft ground or "worse" over the last 5 years, including of note/relevance today...

  • 53/216 (24.5%) for 115.9pts (+53.7%) at odds of 6/5 to 12/1
  • 44/208 (21.2%) for 59.2pts (+28.5%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 44/190 (23.2%) for 62.2pts (+32.8%) with horses younger than 9 yrs old
  • 36/191 (18.9%) for 60.7pts (+31.8%) on soft ground
  • 33/178 (18.5%) for 55.2pts (+31%) over fences
  • 30/107 (28%) for 78.8pts (+73.6%) during December & January
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 38.0pts (+65.6%) over 2m4f-2m4.5f
  • 9/16 (56.25%) for 18.4pts (+115.2%) trained by Nicky Richards
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 21.4pts (+178.7%) here at Newcastle
  • and 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 9.3pts (+154.7%) with Brian Hughes in the saddle...

...whilst if you wanted a 25-30 picks per year micro-system based around the above that used just 47% of the original 291 bets, but generated nearly 74% of the winners and almost doubled the profits, then 5-11 yr olds sent off at 6/5 to 12/1 at Classes 2 to 5 during November to February are 42 from 137 (30.7% SR) for 135.6pts at an ROI of 99%...

...sending us off for Christmas with...a 1pt win bet on Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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