Stat of the Day, 21st August 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.05 Newmarket - Stone The Crows @ 3/1 BOG - 6th at 9/4 : In touch, headway over 7f out, tracked leader halfway until over 2f out, weakened over 1f out...

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock N Roll Global @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

A simple one to start the new week...

...with a 3 yr old gelding who finished third last time out 40 days ago. He was outpaced over a mile in a Class 5 contest that but now benefits from an extra two two furlongs (stays further than this) and a drop in class today.

Over the last two years, his trainer, Richard Hughes, has a 13.7% strike rate in Flat handicaps (38 winners from 278) and although backing them blindly only produced a very small (0.9pts or 0.32% of all stakes) profit, the fact that they were profitable at all gives us a solid base to work from, as in the context of this race, those 278 runners are...

  • 30/197 (15.2%) for 37.9pts (+19.3%) at odds of 5/2 to 14/1
  • 14/76 (18.4%) for 22.8pts (+30%) at Class 6
  • 9/43 (20.%) for 41pts (+95.3%) after a break of 31-60 days
  • 5/30 (16.7%) for 13.8pts (+46.1%) over the 1m2f trip
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 9.04pts (+33.5%) on the turf here at "Leafy"

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Rock N Roll Global @ 4/1 BOG which was available with Bet365 , Skybet and 10Bet at 5.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

2 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 21st August 2017

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    I’m not criticising Spencer for that ride (I thought he got after him plenty early enough), but there must be an angle laying his rides pre-race – especially if they’ve been gambled like this – then backing them on the drift in-running. I didn’t see the exchange prices, but 365 knocked their in-running price out as soon as he reined him back. Will have to do a spot of research.
    Paul

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