Stat of the Day, 21st April 2016

Wednesday's Result :

5.00 Perth: Ballyboker Bridge @ 13/2 BOG WON 9/2 (Close up, pressed leader 4 out, challenging when not much room run-in, soon ridden, kept on to lead towards finish)

A cracking result on Wednesday, the pick winning at an advised 13/2. I know many of you were on at 7/1, as this one's price yoyo'd curiously throughout the day. He was as low as 7/2 at one point before returning 9/2. Beating SP by two clear points is nice, and it's obviously much nicer to do that with the first horse past the post!

That was Nicky Richards' 10th handicap debut winner from 20 such starters in the last two years, and readers may like to note he has two similar sorts entered on Wednesday at Perth. Cuil Rogue might just need deeper ground to show his best, but his Irish bumper form gives him a decent squeak and he could run well. Ping is harder to fancy, but do watch the market as these get backed if/when they're 'off'!

It's been a good week after Monday's 9/2 score, but there is no resting on laurels here as we look to claw back a little more of the 2016 deficit in the...

4.10 Warwick

We've got a new report on Gold this week, called Sire Snippets. I'll write about this very soon in more detail, but suffice it to say that it's another interesting 'in' for many runners.

Take this race, for instance: Snurge as a sire has had 45 of his progeny run in marathon chases (defined as beyond 3m1f) in the last two years. Nine have won (20%) and 20 (44%) have placed. Three of those wins and two further places were applied to the scoresheet by the veteran, Incentivise, who is thirteen years old.

Knocking on he may be - aren't we all? - but he's been in the form of his life recently, much like Monday's 12-year-old scorer, Flaming Thistle. Indeed, he was a course and distance winner last time out, ridden over this marathon 3m5f trip by today's jockey, Jamie Moore.

He's trained by Kerry Lee, a woman who has carried all before her in marathon handicap chases this season. In fact, since taking the reins from her old man, Richard - himself no slouch at the stamina chase game - Kerry has saddled 13 runners in handicap chases beyond 3m1f, with five of them winning for a profit of 45.5 points.

Another two placed, 54% each way strike rate, for 55.88 points profit for one point each way bets.

I am a little worried about the drying ground for Incentivise, who can get a little outpaced and has done all his best running on soft and heavy recently. But, if he can hang on to their shirt tails through the first two miles he'll be staying on as well as any in the second half of the race.

With ten scheduled to go to post, I'm going to suggest half a point each way at a general 13/2.

To see what the latest best prices are...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Warwick

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2 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 21st April 2016

  1. babeandbp

    Hi Matt. Great result yesterday. I’m just curious today as to why it is you say that Cuil Rogue might need deeper ground today. Is that simply based on his placing at Cork or am I missing something other that’s glaringly obvious in his profile? Not being picky by the way….just trying to understand.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi babeandbp

      Yes, based on his second on heavy, which is his best piece of form. When I’m looking at whether horses can win handicap hurdles first time, I always look to see if their NHF (bumper) form was better than their novice/maiden hurdle form at any point. In other words, to see if the horse has ever shown ability.

      Hope that helps a little,
      Matt

      p.s. at the price he may still be worth a tiny ticket, just to see!

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