Stat of the Day, 20th October 2016

Wednesday's Result :

4.05 Worcester : Delores Delightful @ 15/2 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Held up, towards rear, headway before 2 out, went 3rd from last, no impression on leading pair) Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but maybe E/W could have been the play?

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.45 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Little Glenshee at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 10 yr old mare was a winner two starts ago in this grade on similarly soft ground over just half a furlong further at Ayr under today's jockey, before her next race just 11 days later back over the same Ayr track and trip proved a step too far for her, finishing third.

In her defence, that was her 4th run on soft/heavy at 2m4f and beyond inside 8 weeks, she was stepping up in class and had been raised 7lbs for the previous run. She's now down in class, down 3lbs and has been rested for 223 days with today's conditions seemingly more to her liking, should be ready first time up.

She's 6/27 under Lucy Alexander, 6/21 in fields of 6 to 8 runners, 4/15 at Class 4, 3/11 at 2m4f/2m4.5f and has won twice on soft ground.

In addition to her own stats, trainer Nick Alexander's NH runners dropping in class are 15 from 84 (17.9% SR) for 30.4pts (+36.2% ROI) profit when sent off at odds of 12/1 or shorter since the start of 2012. Admittedly, 84 runners isn't the biggest subset of data we've used for SotD, but you might be surprised that it does offer us quite a few profitable angles, of which I'm going to list just 10, as follows...

  • at odds of 3/1 to 12/1 : 13/72 (18.1%) for 36.6pts (+50.8%)
  • in fields of 5 to 9 runners : 11/54 (20.4%) for 27pts (+50%)
  • ridden by Lucy Alexander : 10/49 (20.4%) for 31.3pts (+63.9%)
  • chasers : 9/46 (19.6%) for 12.4pts (+26.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/42 (21.4%) for 22.6pts (+53.8%)
  • dropping from Class 3 : 10/39 (25.6%) for 39.5pts (+101.3%)
  • 9/10 year olds : 7/29 (24.1%) for 37.6pts (+129.8%)
  • returning from a break of 76-240 days : 7/18 (38.9%) for 37.4pts (+207.8%)
  • females : 3/12 (25%) for 2.82pts (+23.5%)
  • in October : 3/8 (37.5%) for 13.82pts (+172.7%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Little Glenshee at 4/1 BOG, from BetVictor, Coral and/or Hills, who led the way at 8.55pm on Wednesday night and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Carlisle.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.