Stat of the Day, 20th October 2012

Stat of the Day 20/10

Stat of the Day 20/10

Stat of the Day, 20th October 2012

In what now seems like Groundhog Day, I can tell you that yesterday's selection Chosen Character finished second, our sixth horse in the last week to make the frame. Unfortunately, we were on a 4/1 shot yesterday, so no E/W return to report this morning.

We're heading East over the Pennines today to check on an old battler tackling a mile and a half in a Class 6 Claimer. Our selection is due to face 10 rivals on soft/heavy ground in the...

4.00 Catterick

Trainer Geoffrey Harker has a decent enough record in non-handicap events at Catterick. He has a win strike rate of 26.2% and a place strike rate of 42.9% from 42 runners since April 2008. That's pretty good going to maintain that level of consistency over a sustained period of time. And in his yard, he has a horse who really loves Catterick and saves his best form for the course, but we'll come to him in a moment!

I don't want the outstanding performance of today's horse to detract from Mr Harker's record without him. Our selection aside: the trainer still boasts a 22.2% strike rate in these events, which is some achievement in itself.

It will now come as no surprise to SotD regulars that Geoffrey Harker only runs one horse today. This is, of course, our selection: Eijazz.

At the top of this piece, I mentioned an old battler and Eijazz certainly fits the profile! He's an 11 yr old veteran of some 92 races: winning 13 of them and making the frame a further 26 times. A win strike rate of 14.1% and a place strike of 42.4% wouldn't have made you rich backing him blindly. In fact the winning bets would have left you looking at a loss of 4.90pts at level stakes.

However, when it comes to Catterick, the story changes...
In all races: 8 wins from 33 (24.2%), 11.5pts profit (34.8% ROI), 22 placed finishes (66.67%) generating 31.2pts profit for E/W backers.
Non-handicaps: 7 from 16 (43.8%), 13.5pts profit (84.4% ROI), 15 placed finishes (93.8%) generating 27.9pts from E/W bets
Non-hcps over today's trip: 7 from 15 (46.7%), 14.5pts profit (96.7% ROI), 14 placed finishes (93.3%) generating 28.4pts from E/W bets

There'll be some cut in the ground today, of course, but that won't bother him, he has won here on soft ground and he won his only ever race on heavy ground (also here at Catterick).

In short, the trainer has a decent Catterick record without Eijazz, but Eijazz has won on the course 8 times: 7 of those over C&D, including this same race in 2010.

He has a little to find at the weights today and this is reflected in the price of 8/1 BOG (Bet365), so the play today is 0.5pts E/W on Eijazz at 8/1 BOG with bet365, but you really should take time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 4.00 Catterick.

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 20th October 2012

  1. @sloanie74

    Very consistant over the last week Chris. Lets hope we can cross the line 1st today. There is a bit of a gamble on our selection going on. I just got it at 11/2 from 8/1 but was backed into 9/2 straight afterwards with paddypower.

  2. Jim Hdez

    Due a stinker and due a win…. Unfortunately we didn’t win !!!.
    Congratulations Frankel !!!. What an amazing horse and rarely can you call a 1/4 shot a Xmas present !!. Got backed into longer odds on and duly obliged as unbeaten and unbeatable !!!!.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      I very rarely bet odds on, but I had two odds on bets yesterday: Excelebration at 10/11, and Cirrus des Aigles (without Frankel) at 4/6. Free money. 🙂

      Matt

  3. oneman

    I walked down to Catterick today with my lap top,(about a hour and a half walk), The conditions were bad with light mist or fog to you!!! lol. We have had it for the last three days.Even if i could see the track, It only got out sunny and nice about, one even then a bit cold. not sure that is a bonus if you know the track? No matter. There is always the car boot fair in the morning!!! LOL.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Bob, he never got involved at all, nor did he look like getting involved. Poor show today, but as soon as he was beaten 3f out, the jockey just eased him right down.

      1. oneman

        Sometimes that is just the way it goes and i am sure we all take this into account and adjust. I was there today and i certainly did fancy running any where fast. Still great e/w stuff in general and there has been a nice increase in my bank of late, so no complaints this end.

        Good luck

        Chris.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.