Stat of the Day, 20th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2014

In the three years that Matt and myself have been doing SotD, you can probably count on one hand the number of times we've been critical of the jockeys riding our selections. The truth is that we are both full of admiration and respect for what they do, but sometimes they get it quite wrong and I can't help but feel that's what happened at Kempton with James Doyle on Wednesday evening.

For us to back a horse of Captain Cat's calibre at 3/1 BOG and see him sent off at 6/5 made me feel that we were going to be having a very good day, but the horse was held up so far off the pace it was almost ridiculous. Yes, he likes to come later in the piece, but by the time James asked him to go and win the race, he'd already lost it.

End result, 4th at 6/5, a length and a half shy of winning a race he should have taken relatively comfortably. I'm not talking through my pocket here either, I'm genuinely frustrated at seeing a horse not being given the chance to fulfill its potential.

Anyway rant/moan over with, I need a winner after that episode, and so I now turn (with an open mind! :D) towards the...

6.40 Kempton:

Because if at first you don't succeed, you are to try again!

Thursday's Kempton hopeful is Knight Owl, currently priced at 5/1 BOG and to be ridden by George Baker for the James Fanshawe yard.

Let's start with the trainer's overall record...

Since the start of 2011, if you'd placed a £10 bet on each of Mr Fanshawe's runners, you'd now be sitting on level stakes profits of £1852, courtesy of backing 146 winners from 925 runners at a strike rate of 15.8% with that £1852 profit equating to a 20% return on your money.

The original 925 runners can now be broken down as follows...

On the A/W : 71/358 (19.8% SR) for 54.8pts (+15.3% ROI) profit.
In handicaps : 87/491 (17.7% SR) for 75pts (+15.3% ROI)
A/W Handicaps : 43/200 (21.5% SR) for 68.3pts (+34.1% ROI) and...
A/W 3yo+ hcps : 19/97 (19.6% SR) for 34pts (+35.1% ROI)

He also has a particularly good record here at Kempton...

...and from the 358 overall A/W runners, the figures here at Kempton are as follows:

On the A/W : 54/246 (22% SR) for 98.3pts (+40% ROI) profit.
A/W Handicaps : 33/140 (23.6% SR) for 90.7pts (+64.8% ROI) and...
A/W 3yo+ hcps : 14/66 (21.2% SR) for 45.9pts (+69.5% ROI)

He also does well in these 3yo+ handicaps under more specialised circumstances...

He's one of a number of trainers I follow with runners fitting the following criteria : A/W 3yo+ hcps with male runners aged 3 to 7. These runners should be running at the same class or within 1 class as their last run, at the same trip or within 2 furlongs of their last run. Since the start of 2009, James Fanshawe has had 116 such runners with 26 winners (22.4% SR) yielding 54.8pts profit at an ROI of 47.2%.

Of these 116 runners, the breakdown fitting today's selection is as below...

4 year olds : 12/42 (28.6% SR) for 39.9pts (+94.9% ROI)
Same class as LTO : 12/69 (17.4% SR) for 18.7pts (+27.1% ROI)
Same trip as LTO : 14/60 (23.3% SR) for 11.5pts (+19.1% ROI)
In Class 3 races : 3/13 (23.1% SR) for 3.2pts (+24.4% ROI)
Over today's 1 mile trip : 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 10.7pts (+44.4% ROI)
Here at Kempton : 20/75 (26.7% SR) for 70.9pts (+94.5% ROI)

It's an admittedly very small sample, but 4 yr olds running at the same class and trip as LTO in a 3yp+ A/W hcp at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 are 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 8.4pts (+92.9% ROI) profit to date!

Jockey George Baker is no mug around this track either..

...with an excellent record totally independent of James Fanshawe that reads 77 winners from 473 (16.3% SR) handicap contests here at Kempton since the start of 2011. These winners have generated level stakes profits of 133.7pts at an ROI of 28.3%, which is very good going indeed.

And what about the horse, Knight Owl?

He was a winner in a 1m handicap at Redcar a couple of months ago and last time out he finished fourth over course and distance. He really caught the eye with the way he finished that day, getting within a length and a half of thewinner despite having far too much work to do late on. He was held up, then couldn't get out and once out, got bumped again before running on strongly. Of the three that beat him that day, only Heisman (0.75 lengths ahead) has reappeared, but that was a winning return over the same trip at Lingfield last Friday.

If the form holds out and Knight Owl keeps out of trouble closer to the pace, then I see no reason why he can't land his first A/W success here at Kempton. So, the call is a 1pt win bet on Knight Owl at 5/1 BOG. I'm on with Betfred, but with Coral and Betfair Sportsbook offering the same price, there's no reason to miss out here. To see the full market...

...click here for the latest betting on the 6.40 Kempton

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8 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 20th November 2014

  1. jethro

    I agree with your comments on Captain Cat above Chris. I think on this occasion (as talented as he obviously is) he simply gave the horse too much to do! Better luck with Knight Owl…

  2. Essexboy

    The timeform guru on Racing UK prior to the race said that in his opinion he had not got a chance of winning and forecast the Sloane Ranger on timeform ratings he had the potential to improve and was likely to win the contest.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hmmm, I watched RUK all evening and that race in particular and that’s not exactly what he said.
      They said he shouldn’t be 8lbs (?) better than Sloane Avenue (not Sloane Ranger, if we’re being pedantic) and the real difference should be a couple of pounds.
      They also discussed perceived ratings as opposed to achieved ratings etc.

      What you’ve said that he said is totally contradictory, of course.
      A horse with potential to improve isn’t necessarily most likely to beat a proven standard.

      Man United have more scope for improvement than Chelsea, but that doesn’t make them more likely to win.

      Anyway, to be honest, it’s irrelevant.
      CC should have won, but he didn’t. He wasn’t beaten by a better horse, our jockey screwed up and not for the first time.

  3. alpha2

    Hi Chris, mostly I focus on 2yo racing so look very closely at jockey performance on 2yos and oddly James Doyle is one that I mark down at Kempton. His strike rate is around 12% on 2yos and 13% on older ones. Given the quality of stable he mostly rides for and in comparison with most other courses his Kempton figures are below expectation. Below are my comments for a 2yo race in which he rode at Kempton in October.

    Race:Kempton 15th October 7f Mdn Fillies
    Draw Ad:Low
    Zari 8.75
    Naizah 8.5
    Ninepins 8.5
    Flighty Filia 8.25
    Lady Estella 8.25
    Lillian Baylis 8.25
    Ershaadaat 7.75
    Rock Kristal 7.25
    A bit of a test for my post-race ratings here as I have them all fairly lowly rated with Ninepins just ahead of Eastern Romance and Zari. I would be hopeful that if Ninepins has grown up a bit and behaves herself she might just be a better type. The unraced dangers are Naizah and Ershadaat although I am beginning to have my doubts about James Doyle at Kempton, for the quality of horses he gets to ride he may be coming up a bit short.

  4. whiston01

    I have to agree that Captain Cat was given a very ordinary ride by James Doyle.He never got it in a position to get to the front.As they say he was nearest at the finish.I have to worry about the future for Captain Cat.He has won decent races but has a style like an equine Michael Johnson.I think he will fall out of love with the game as it looks painful for him.
    Now what about Man U having more scope for improvement than Chelsea.This is a team with two has been strikers a defence that has more holes than a sieve and midfielders who pass sideways more than forward.Take a look at Chelsea and the talent they have both in the first team and their very good juniors.Sorry Chris as a northerner it pains me to say Chelsea have much more scope and will be above Man u for many years. UP THE MILLERS.

  5. scouse

    As for Time form well him that runs it or used to gives tips on Hills tv ha ha very good lays
    we all say that won’t be winning, you know who I mean Tommos mate from the morning line,
    and he is in the know very close to it all. They only tell us what they wan’t us to hear they keep the good stuff to themselves.
    Bob

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