Stat of the Day, 20th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th May 2014

Lion On The Prowl was anything but, I'm afraid. He was more timid pussy cat than prowling lion and had an apparent reluctance to race. He was being given reminders and cajolement from a long way out and its testament to AP McCoy that he finished the race without pulling up.

5th of 6 and 25 lengths off the pace isn't the best start to the week, but you can't win them all, but I do hope to win the...

7.00 Yarmouth:

With James Fanshawe's 3/1 BOG chance Emulating.

I like backing James Fanshawe's runners, because they make me money!  You can back all of them and make a profit. In fact if you'd put £10 on each of his 680 runners over the last four years (a proper sample size!), not only would the 114 winners have given you a very respectable 16.8% strike rate, they would also have generated £2142 profit for you, a healthy return of 31.5% above your stakes.

If we look at just those running on the Flat, the strike rate is slightly lower at 14.6% (via a 61/417 record) but the ROI increases to 37.8% courtesy of the 157.6pts profits achieved.

This is from a really decent sample size, as demonstrated by the fact that James has just the seven runners on show today, so which do we go with and why?

I'm going with Emulating for a couple of reasons, one of which is that he drops in Class today and Mr Fanshawe has an excellent record when dropping his horses in class. You can go all the way back to 2006 and check his figures, but he does consistently well with horses dropping in grade and in the last eight years that record reads as 36 winners from 195 (18.5% SR) for 91.4pts (+46.9% ROI), whilst those sent off more towards our price range, ie 13/8 to 6/1, won 22 of 94 races for a strike rate of 23.4% and profits of 27.6pts, or 29.4% of stakes.

These figures aren't distorted by some big winners a long time ago, as the stats for these class droppers in the last two seasons show 9 winners from 37 (24.3% SR) for 34.1pts (+92.2% ROI), so the yard seem to be getting better rather than worse.

Emulating was a winner two starts ago over 1m4f at Kempton, when seizing the initiative with over a furlong to run and staying on well to win by a length and a half. He was subsequently raised 5lbs for that win and finished fifth at Haydock last time out, but there were mitigating circumstances around that defeat. he was up to a rating of 75, his highest ever, but he is eased a pound today. That race at Haydock was a Class 4 contest over 10.5f, whilst this is a lower grade over a more suitable trip.

And whilst he wasn't disgraced up at Haydock 95th of 16, only beaten by 4.5 lengths), conditions here today are more reminiscent of that win two runs ago and a similar level of performance should be more than enough to land this.

So, Tuesday's play is a 1pt win bet on Emulating at 3/1 BOG with Bet365. other bookies are available, of course (Ladbrokes are currently offering 100/30, but that's non-BOG until 9.00am) and the easiest way to see all the prices listed together, is to just...

...click here for the latest betting on the 7.00 Yarmouth

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Here is today's racecard.

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