Stat of the Day, 20th January 2016

Tuesday's Result :

2.35 Ayr : Un Noble @ 5/2 BOG WON at 2/1 (With leaders, led 9th, headed before 5 out, led 4 out, blundered last, kept on driven out to win by just over 3 lengths)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

2.55 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Holly Bush Henry @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

He's trained by Graeme McPherson, who although not possessing the greatest strike rate, has been profitable to back blindly in NH contests since the start of 2010.

His 745 runners have yielded 73 winners (9.8% SR) and level stakes profits of 192.5pts (+25.8% ROI), of which his handicappers are 54/470 (11.5% SR) for 237.4pts (+50.5% ROI).

From those 470 handicappers, his hurdlers are 35/311 (11.3% SR) for 173pts (+55.6% ROI) broken down further as follows...

  • males are 31/256 (12.1% SR) for 187.6pts (+73.3% ROI)
  • on soft ground : 12/62 (19.4% SR) for 54.1pts (+87.3% ROI)
  • Class 3 : 7/46 (15.2% SR) for 52.7pts (+114.6% ROI)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/39 (10.3% SR) for 48.5pts (+124.4% ROI)
  • ridden by Kielan Woods : 6/33 (18.2% SR) for 42.6pts (+129.2% ROI)

So far, Holly Bush Henry is 3 from 5 in his short career and since switching to the McPherson yard is 2 from 2, both in 2m0.5f soft ground handicap hurdles at Doncaster under Kielan Woods and as a result of that latest 6 lengths victory 39 days ago, he now seeks a hat-trick here, buoyed by the fact that...

...since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers racing within 60 days of an LTO handicap hurdle win by four lengths or more are 271/1050 (25.8% SR) for 227pts (+21.6% ROI) profit, with the following of interest from those 1050 runners...

  • 4 to 45 days since that last run/win : 258/995 (25.9% SR) for 228.2pts (+22.9% ROI)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 147/509 (28.9% SR) for 151.7pts (+29.8% ROI)
  • on soft ground : 69/258 (26.7% SR) for 93.1pts (+36.1% ROI)
  • here at Musselburgh : 5/22 (22.7% ROI) for 11.4pts (+51.7% ROI)

whilst 5-6 yr olds running on soft ground 4 to 45 days after an LTO win are 33/119 (27.7% SR) for 64.5pts (+54.2% ROI).

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 7.35pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Holly Bush Henry and that's at 3/1 BOG with either BetVictor or Paddy Power. Betway do offer the same price, but only offer BOG on stakes of £10 or more placed after 10.00am on race day. 11/4 BOG is, however, widely available, as you'll see if you...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Musselburgh :

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 20th January 2016

  1. Blokeshead

    Very good, Chris – nice call. Just another half dozen or so on the trot (please!) and then maybe everyone will be happy?

    For a week or two, anyway. ;o)

  2. Doshtosh

    Great shout, again, Chris, thanks, and have to say it was a good ride, like yesterday’s, and was needed, it’s good to be on the side of some good stuff, again.
    Again, thanks very much.

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