Saturday's Result :
3.50 Haydock : The Worlds End @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 Mid-division, went 3rd before 6 out, led 3 out, kept on well from last to win comfortably by 9 lengths.
Monday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Theatre Act @ 5/1 BOG
Today's pick is trained by Chris Grant and is due to be ridden by Brian Hughes and both have done well here at Carlisle in the past. Chris' horses were 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 61.7pts (+560.8% ROI) here last year and although the profit/loss figure is clearly skewed by a big-priced winner, the numbers still look good, as they include the following...
- at Class 4 : 4/10 (40%) for 62.7pts (+627%)
- over hurdles : 4/8 (50%) for 64.7pts (+808.6%)
- at 2m1f : 3/6 (50%) for 59.6pts (+993.4%)
- at 11/10 to 6/1 odds : 3/3 (100%) for 10.56pts (+355.3%)
- on Good to Soft : 2/3 (66.6%) for 58.2pts (+1939.5%)
- and ridden by Brian Hughes : 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.5pts (+283.3%)
Once again, the big-priced winner caveat applies to the above.
Today's jockey, Brian Hughes is enjoying another of those purple patches he seems to have on a regualr basis, winning 7 of his 25 rides last week and he too had a great year at Carlisle in 2016, winning 14 of 44 (31.8% SR) for 30.2pts (+68.6% ROI) and aside from his 2 winners from 3 rides for Chris Grant, those 44 runners could be broken down as follows...
- at odds of 6/1 and shorter : 12/27 (44.4%) for 22.9pts (+84.7%)
- in handicaps : 7/24 (29.2%) for 24.2pts (+100.9%)
- at Class 4 : 9/22 (40.9%) for 25.4pts (+115.5%)
- over hurdles : 5/17 (29.4%) for 6.95pts (+40.9%)
- on Good to Soft : 5/16 (31.25%) for 20.3pts (+126.9%)
- and at 2m/2m1f : 6/14 (42.9%) for 7.2pts (+51.4%)
As for the horse, Theatre Act, she has finished 11551 in her last five outings winning on her last two visits here at Carlisle and also winning at Sedgefield LTO 22 days ago. She looks well suited to the task ahead, as her hurdles record includes...
- 3 wins from 8 in fields of 10-12 runners, 3/6 under Brian Hughes, 3/5 in cheekpieces,
- 2/5 after 18-23 days rest, 2/3 at Carlisle, 1/2 over course and distance, 1/2 on good to soft.
And, in addition to all the above data...Since the start of 2012, class 3 to 5 handicap hurdlers with CD next to their name on the racecard and were also winners (anywhere) LTO 11 to 30 days ago are 93/373 (24.9% SR) for 201.8pts (+54.1% ROI), from which...
- those running 16-25 days since last seen are 47/173 (27.2%) for 134.5pts (+77.7%)
- those running on good to soft are 18/65 (27.7%) for 68.4pts (+105.2%)
- and those running on good to soft 16-25 days since last seen are 10/33 (30.3%) for 59.4pts (+180%)
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Theatre Act @ 5/1 BOG which was available with both Bet365 and BetVictor at 9.55pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS