Stat of the Day, 20th February 2014
Roy's Legacy looked to have every chance of winning yesterday, as the 5/2 fav (we got at 9/2!) led at the furlong pole, but he was rather swamped and outpaced by two faster finishers and third place was the best he/we could manage.
There were a couple of plus points to take from yesterday, though. Firstly, the third place we achieved meant we've now notched up 10 placers in a row in recent string of results reading 3231111233 and secondly, the 11/4 winner of yesterday's contest was advised by Matt on The Shortlist.
So, it was still a win for Geegeez, if not SotD. I'll aim to rectify that later tonight in the...
With a 9/2 BOG shot Malaysian Boleh, who just like Roy's Legacy yesterday is in good form (14233) and runs off a mark just a pound lower than the top-rated horse in the race. This is a similar Class 5 A/W handicap contest to yesterday's selected race and I'm expecting a decent run from our selection.
The 4yr old Malaysian Boleh's last win was here over course and distance and he was second over C&D in his only other visit to Dunstall Park, so track and trip won't be an issue and after three narrow defeats, he drops down in class, yet runs off the same mark as last time out. He also has William Twiston-Davies on his back today, claiming 3lbs which should make him very competitive at this grade here.
If we look at 4yr old males running in Class 5 A/W handicaps over the last four years, we can see that those running at odds of between 5/2 and 6/1 (i.e. general SotD territory!) at either the same class or down a grade from last time and were either top rated or within a pound of top, have the following record: 49 wins from 218 runs (22.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 58.15pts, an ROI of 26.7%.
That record when applied to races of 7 to 8 furlongs is an impressive 24/80 (30% SR) for 60.2pts (+75.2% ROI) profit.
Malaysian Boleh has been in the first three home in each of his last three races without actually winning and horses with recent results like that have gone on to win 82 times from 274 Class 5 A/W handicaps in the last three years when priced at 6/1 or under. That 29.9% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 71.85pts, or 26.2% of stakes invested.
From those 274 races:
16 winners from 42 (38.1% SR) over 7 furlongs for +38.54pts (+91.8% ROI)
35 winners from 88 (39.8% SR) here at Wolverhampton for 57.93pts (+65.8% ROI)
and ultimately 7/18 (38.9% SR) over course and distance for 13.8pts (+76.7% ROI)
All of which points me towards a 1pt win bet on Malaysian Boleh at 9/2 BOG this evening. The price is currently on offer from BetVictor, whilst 4/1 is generally available. As always, I invite you to...