Stat of the Day, 20th February 2013
I thought we'd bagged ourselves a winner yesterday, but Home Run decided to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Ironically, the race was lost in the home run, as our mount took to veering dramatically left after the final hurdle towards the rails, which opened the door for 25/1 shot Barizan to take the spoils.
We had, fortunately, taken 13/2 E/W about our 11/2 runner, who rallied gamely once straightened up, but couldn't get any closer than a length and a quarter away. We made a small 0.31pt profit from the race, but it felt like a loss. If you saw the race, you'll know what I mean!
SotD heads North from Taunton today to Shropshire and the Welsh Borders where we've an old warrior attempting to turn back time in a two and a half mile hunter chase. Thirteen horses have been entered to tackle this contest on soft ground in the...
Despite now being in the twilight of his career, the 15 yr old veteran Fairwood Present can still have a big say in proceedings today. He's become something of a Course and Distance specialist here in the last few years, having competed eight times between April 2010 and May last year with his worst result being a 4th place on his Ludlow debut.
All in all, his record here reads 42231322, all at today's trip of 2m 4f and showing a remarkable level of consistency. Admittedly backing him to win here has shown a small 2pt loss, but the consistent placing has rewarded E/W backers to the tune of 6.5pts. Whilst not breaking the bank, it's still a healthy return.
He won a C&D Hunter Chase here back in May 2011 and was actually very unlucky not to win a similar contest on his last Ludlow outing, when he had a minor collision with the winner and came off second best, losing out by 0.5 lengths in the end.
So, his form here tells us he gets the trip and the track. He has posted good performances on all going types from Good to Firm right through to Heavy, so the cut in the ground today shouldn't pose a problem. I'm also not too concerned that he's been off the track for 264 days either, as he did have a pipe opener in a point to point in December, so he'll hopefully not be too rusty.
This is more than likely his last season, so I'd love him to go out in the kind of form he's capable of. When on his game, he stays the trip without and often seems to have a little in hand. The runner-up of this race from 2012 Bermuda Boy takes part again today and is likely to be the main danger at a fairly short (2/1-ish) price. This suits us really, as Fairwood Present's stats direct us more to an E/W bet and the favourite's price will certainly help us get a longer price for ours!
As it stands (at 10.00am), 9/1 seems to be the general consensus amongst the bookmakers already showing their hand, so the call today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Fairwood Present at 9/1 BOG. I've placed my bet with BetVictor (who are kindly sponsoring our tipping competition here), but if you prefer to use someone else, then simply...