Stat of the Day, 20th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th August 2015

After a rare day off due to a non-runner on Tuesday, it was back to business with a bang at Ffos Las in the wet and the gloom on Wednesday afternoon, as Declan Bates did a magnificent job of getting Sir Billy Wright home with something to spare in the end.

At halfway of the 5f contest, it didn't look like it was going to be our day, but the pair seemed to glide across the sodden turf, making up loads of ground to pull clear to win by half a length, but relatively comfortably in the end.

Our 100/30 bet was reduced to 3/1 via the dreaded Rule 4 again, but we still smashed the 15/8 SP by some distance on the way to making it 2 from 2 for the week and we're now hat-trick seeking in the...

4.40 Stratford :

And a family affair in this 2m 6.5f, Class 4 handicap chase which is reported to be on good to firm ground, but I'd not be surprised to see the firm bit dropped tomorrow! That's the setting for the race in place, now onto the finer details!

The family in question are the Skeltons and their horse Vivacissimo is priced at 6/1 non-BOG (until 9.00am) with Ladbrokes and a generally available 11/2 BOG to take his own personal Stratford tally to 2 from 2.

In nine days time, it will be two years to the day that trainer Dan Skelton had his first NH handicap runner. Brother Harry was in the saddle aboard Gavroche Gauvain in a Class 5, 2m3f, handicap hurdle here at Stratford, but there was no fairytale beginning. The team was the last home of seven finishers, but thankfully they've never looked back since.

To date, Dan's NH handicappers are now 74/348 (21.3% SR) for 11.3pts profit at a rather modest 3.25% ROI, but blind profitability is always a great starting point for refinement, as we don't really want to back every runner anyway!

Simply avoiding odds on jollies and those beyond 12/1 gives us a far more palatable 69 winners from 300 (23% SR) and profits of 50.9pts at an ROI of 17%, which is more to my liking!

Of those 300, Harry Skelton is 51/223 (22.9% SR) for 58.7pts (+26.3% ROI) and Dan's handicappers are 6/20 (30% SR) here at Stratford for 5.6pts (+28% ROI).

A quick and easy micro for you from the above would be to back the Skelton brothers when partnered up in Class 4/5 handicap chases at evens to 12/1. In almost two years, that gives 18 winners from 58 (31% SR) and 20.8pts (+35.9% ROI) profit. That particular angle is 2/4 here at Stratford for 2.57pts (+64.2% ROI).

More generally, the boys are 82/366 (22.4% SR) for 69.1pts (+18.9% ROI) together with horses priced in that evens to 12/1 range. I mentioned earlier that they were 51/223 (22.9% SR) for 58.7pts (+26.3% ROI) in handicaps at those odds, but they're also 9/25 (36% SR) for 19.6pts (+78.4% ROI) together here at Stratford.

As a team together in hcp chases on this track at the same odds range, they are 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 5.86pts (+65.1% ROI) profit with those horses priced at 5/4 to 7/1 winning 3 of 6 (50% SR) for 8.86pts at an ROI of 147.6%.

Vivacissimo is 1 from 1 here on this course, albeit over hurdles just two starts ago, but has won over fences at a trip of 2m 4.5f and the way he has stayed in the past suggests he'll get today's trip well enough. He's also 1 from 1 under Harry Skelton and with Harry back amongst the winners with a 16/1 triumph at Worcester on Wednesday evening, confidence should be high.

I decided to take the 11/2 BOG about Vivacissimo from Coral, as I felt it was worth sacrifcing 8.3% of the Ladbrokes price to get the insurance against a drift, but please feel free to make your own decision on this one, after you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Stratford

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12 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 20th August 2015

  1. jethro

    Hi Chris,
    I took from your Geegeez Weekly System Trials article earlier, that you weren’t going to be around for a fortnight? So I am very pleasantly surprised to see you still putting out tomorrow’s SotD!
    Is it just the trial reviews you are staying out of for a fortnight? (He said hopefully to the man in red hot picking form!) Cheers…

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I’m actually going on a family holiday to Portugal for two weeks, so technically I’m not on Geegeez duty at all from Friday 7.00am.

      However, as you’re probably aware, I run a subscription service (www.statpicks.co.uk) away from geegeez and I need to continue to provide selections for my paying members. As thsoe selections are stat-based, it makes sense to me to also provide SotD to geegeez subscribers.

      Otherwise, you’d have still been looked after more than capably by Matt, so there’d have been no break in service.
      I should also stress that the decision to be here whilst I’m not here, was entirely my own. The only difference you might see is a slight change in timimgs of my stuff going live, as I work around the family.

      Tapping away on a laptop by a pool in the sunshine is no real hardship after all! #firstworldproblems

  2. keef7149

    Hi Chris
    As a man who joined Statpicks on Saturday, thanks for 1-2 Saturday, 1-1 Monday & 2-3 today .. Have a great holiday you have certainly earned a Sagres or three…… Obrigado
    Keith Richardson

  3. jethro

    Thanks Chris – I know that Matt is more than capable of picking winners, but while you’re is such great form it’s good from a selfish perspective that you will still be making the selections while you are technically off duty!
    Hope you have a great holiday anyway – and very well earned!!!

  4. Doshtosh

    I. too, wish you a wonderful couple of weeks in the sun, and more importantly, with your family. You deserve lots of good things. Thanks for all you’ve done for us and long may it continue, even though Hill have joined my line of former “partners” They told me, last night, to go forward and multiply! Only on one account, though!!!!!
    Stay well and safe, Chris.

  5. Bubbles180

    Despite no winners on SOTD or DD today still found 3 from 4 on instant expert, so just goes to show that we can win using this site no matter what, am joining your other serice as well chris and is their any other service that matt recommends although may not need it, bets today were

    14.45 Chep JAGANORY 3/1 Won
    15.40 York COVERT LOVE 5/2 Lost (neck)
    15.55 Chep CALAHARA DANCER 25/1 Won
    16.55 York MISTRUSTING 3/1 Won

  6. Bubbles180

    As before had calahara dancer 25/1 winner, based on matts criteria for instant expert, so today looked at York Ebor race did the criteria and bang selected LITIGATE at 33/1 Winner

    This has to be the best system on the market today thanks matt and your staff for a wonderful week/month/year already and with more to come can only get better.

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