Stat of the Day, 20th August 2013
Well, for the fourth time in the last seven days, our runner finished third! And whilst the 13/2 SP may well look like I should have taken the safer E/W option (which I did consider), the withdrawal at the start of one runner rendered this a seven-runner contest, so we'd have been further frustrated.
As it was, Marcus Caesar bravely attempted to make all, but became the meat in a sandwich between faster finishers. He did stay on well to the end, but was overhauled inside the final furlong, going down by less than three parts of a length in total.
We're heading to the South Coast today for a crack at a six-runner 10 furlong, Class 5 handicap, better known as the...
July and August are often very profitable months for Sir Mark Prescott. In fact, with horses running at this time of year in handicap races and priced between evens and 6/1, he has a 33% strike rate (120 winners from 364), producing level stakes profits of 100.4pts, a return of 27.6%. And the stats for this year alone are 11 winners from 29 (37.9% SR) for 16pts (+55%) profit.
Sir Mark also has an excellent record here at Brighton with seven handicap winners from 18 since 2009. That 38.9% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 17pts, an excellent 64.4% return on investments.
He has two runners here today: North Pole has finishes of 322 in his three handicap starts to date and looks to have a decent chance of breaking his duck at 11/4 in the 3.15 race.
My selection however runs in the very next contest: Alzavola, who comes here on the back of two decent runs at Bath. She was an easy 10 length winner when making all over today's trip of 1m 2f, before finishing third over an extra furlong and a half. She was only headed in the closing furlong that day, not seeming to quite stay the trip. The drop back to ten furlongs should be ideal today. There's also a train of thought that she might have needed more than an eight-day break between those Bath efforts and she has rested for eighteen days this time.
Luke Morris rides both Prescott horses I've mentioned here today and in the last couple of seasons, Luke has won 35.3% of his handicap races for this yard (48/136) for level stakes profits of some 43pts (+31.6% ROI). Virtually all of that profit has been made on horses priced at 6/1 or under, as a record of 45 winners from 108 races (41.7% SR) has made 42.24pts profit for a return of 39.1% with results of 2411 here at Brighton for +7.58pts.
Alzavola will probably be well fancied today, but I still think there's a bit of juice in the 2/1 BOG on offer from Coral, Betfred and Stan James. I'm going with the former, but for your pick of the bookies...