Stat of the Day, 1st September 2016

Wednesday's Result :

7.50 Carlisle : Ryan The Giant @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 4/1 (Slowly away, mid-division, led over 8f out, headed over 3f out, weakened over 1f out) : the stat about Keith Dalgleish handicappers still stands as his runner in the previous race was a winner!

Thursday's pick goes in the...

8.40 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sarsted at 13/2 BOG

Why?

According to the excellent Trainer Snippets report, Hughie Morrison does well with handicap stayers, so I decided to take a closer look and what I found that was since the start of 2014, he has an excellent record in handicaps over 1m 3.5f to 2m.

If you've not checked this report out yet, you really should!

Anyway, numbers-wise, I found that Hughie's runners had won 38 of 176 (21.6% SR) in such conditions, recording level stakes profits of 75.1pts at an ROI of 42.7%, and of those 176 runners, I further discovered that...

  • those returning from a break of 0-45 days are 31/131 (23.7%) for 79.8pts (+60.9%)
  • those priced at 100/30 to 9/1 are 21/85 (24.7%) for 51.4pts (+60.4%)
  • those racing over this specific 1m6f trip are 13/47 (27.7%) for 59.1pts (+125.7%)
  • at Class 4, they are 9/41 (22%) for 17.7pts (+43.3%)
  • those finishing 2nd LTO are 10/28 (35.7%) for 11.8pts (+42.2%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 7/11 (63.6%) for 17pts (+154.7%)

All of which was music to my ears (eyes?), as I already liked the look of Sarsted, as he's now 5lbs better off re-opposing his victor from last time out, having only been beaten by a length and a quarter with the switch back to Chelmsford (where he has already won) being another factor, especially as...

...Hughie Morrison's runners are 16 from 40 (40% SR) for 47.2pts (+118.1% ROI) here at Chelmsford since the venue re-opened, of which...

  • those returning from a break of 6-45 days are 14/29 (48.3%) for 46.9pts (+161.8%)
  • handicappers are 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.6pts (+102.1%)
  • those priced at 11/4 to 10/1 are 11/22 (50%) for 54pts (+245.5%)
  • over trips of 1m 5.5f to 2m : 8/16 (50%) for 14.1pts (+88.1%)
  • previous course winners are 5/11 (45.5%) for 5.54pts (+50.4%)
  • those with a top 2 finish LTO are 6/9 (66.7%) for 11.34pts (+126%)
  • and Jim Crowley has ridden 2 winners from 3 (66.7%) for 0.79pts (+26.2%)

Jim, himself, is in fine form, chasing every last winner he can get and over the last nine days from 45 rides, has 14 winners (31.1% SR) and has made the frame a further 14 times for a place strike rate of 62.2%!

In addition to his recent run of winners, his record here at Chelmsford is also decent with 20 wins from 98 (20.4% SR) for level stakes profits of 40.2pts at an ROI of some 41%.

...which give us...a 1pt win bet on Sarsted at 13/2 BOG, with either Bet365 or BetVictor who jointly headed the market at 6.15pm on Wednesday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Chelmsford.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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