Stat of the Day, 1st October 2014
Sendiym had to dig deep from 2 out to win again at Sedgefield, but win again he did. Once he eventually saw off a spirited challenge from Amir Pasha, he was able to pen up a six length winning margin on the run in, with the icing on the cake coming in the knowledge that we smashed the SP.
Sendiym was returned an 11/4 winner, having been advised at 13/2 BOG over night. Yes, I went E/W, but I still made 3.9pts profit, a full 41.8% better than a 1pt win at SP. I know some of you went win only, and got your just rewards with a return equating to 236.4% of SP!
Taking the official returns of 3.9pts profit from the race, this meant we closed out September with a 10/26 (38.5% SR) record and level stakes profits of 23.73pts at an ROI of 91.3%.
That, however, is now in the past as we enter October. All clocks are reset and we go again from zero in the...
Sod's Law dictates that when I want to get off to a flyer, there's not a lot on offer to me from a stats perspective, but I think we've a decent chance with the 4/1 BOG Nearest The Pin here today.
He was a comfortable 10 lengths winner at Worcester just five days ago (Friday) and he's quickly sent out to take advantage of his return to form.
Conditions are very similar for him here today and all three career wins have been in and around this 2m1f trip. In fact, he has never won a race at 2m2f or beyond so far. He's also a horse that his yard likes to keep busy, as last week's win came just 12 days after he's faded to 5th place of 8 runners at Listowel over a 2n4f he just didn't get.
I'm not over-concerned about him being so active, because since 2009, handicap chasers sent off at odds of between 5/2 & 14/1 over trips shorter than 2m2f on the back of a run in the past 5 days have won 31 of 150 (20.7% SR) races when they had already had at least one run in the preceding 8 weeks.
That 20.7% strike rate has produced 76.6pts profit at an ROI of 51.1% and those of the 150 runners who were in the first three home last time out (inside 5 days) went on to win 21 of 70 races (30% SR) for 65.3pts profit. And with Nearest The Pin winning last time out, he fits this criteria.
The fact that he was unplaced in the previous run also puts him in good company as those in the top three inside the last five days after an unplaced run have a 14 from 40 (35% SR) record, which has produced 53.3pts profit at an ROI of 132.9%.
It's a small sample size, but since the horse did win LTO, I suppose I should point out that those who won inside 5 days and also ran in the previous eight weeks have a 3/15 (20% SR) record for 4.7pts (+31.3% ROI).
All of which isn't easy to put into words, but I think I got there!
Mind you, turning recent winners back out quickly over fences is a proven tactic and has reaped decent rewards, especially if there has been a little bit of money about for them. Since 2008, chasers priced between 9/4 & 9/1 who had won the past five days went on to "double up" on 41 of 134 (30.6% SR) occasions, which in turn generated 70.25pts profits from 1pt level stake betting at an ROI of 52.4%.
Nearest The Pin will come here in good heart and although he's penalised 5lbs for last week's win, his jockey can account for 3lbs via his claim, which should keep our boy competitive at least. It's a bigger field than he faced on Friday, but I'm not entirely convinced it's a better quality line-up, plus the fact he has won races with 12 and 16 runners in the past suggests he'll not be intimidated/overfaced here.
On a day, where there wasn't a lot down for me, I'm pretty happy to place a 1pt win bet on Nearest The Pin at 4/1 BOG with Paddy Power. To check the rest of the market, simply...
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