Stat of the Day, 1st November 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 1st November

We finished October in much the same vein as the month as a whole: in Clunkerville. That's how it is sometimes, and we have to ride the bad wves just the same as we surf the good ones. The market was beaten by 50% again (advised at 9/1, returned 6/1) and with that kind of value edge, we can only come out in front. (To the 'helpful' people who keep rating this post '1', perhaps you don't understand value. I hope to be able to show you why its crucial soon, but of course we need winners for that!)

Today, we're going p-p-plundering over fences, in the...

3.10 Stratford

Charlie Longsdon is a trainer headed for the top. He's a very good trainer, and an excellent placer of his horses too.

His record at Stratford is exemplary, especially with chasing types. In such races, he's run 27 horses, with seven of them coming home in front, for a profit of 23.74 points.

His sole chase representative this afternoon is a horse with form figures of PPP (pulled up/pulled up/pulled up), which sound a bit like my own SotD form just now.

And, despite that, I'm hoping Rossmore Lad makes a big improvement this afternoon. Two of those P's were last season, and the third of them was on debut this term. That run was his first attempt at a steeplechase under rules (he'd previously won a point-to-point in Ireland) and, although he ultimately pulled up, he jumped quite well and just ran out of juice.

He's dropped in class for this first effort in handicap chase company and is interesting in that context. Prior to his three P's, all in Class 3 company, he'd won a Class 4 hurdle race. This is more his level, and although we do need him to recover his old lustre, it's far from impossible in a pretty moderate race.

His trainer is in pretty good form, and if Rossmore Lad is to show a return to winning ways, it will be in a race like this.

Each way at 8/1 BOG, and I'm hoping we can turn the corner now that November is here. Good luck.

Click here for the latest odds on the 3.10 Stratford.

16 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 1st November 2012

  1. Johnny5

    Matt

    06:44am – it’s 9/1 with 365 which allows you a bit more play on your ew and should be your base price for calculations

    What’s the point of rating your selections a 1? You do all the work for this community and it’s free … Ok not all win , but the long term view shows you are well profitable .

    If people who do that and want to throw stones at a gift horse are best going to the myriad of tipsters who charge £££ for short price 6/4 selections that are ‘information from a contact at the stable’ and then see where they end up in the long run

    Good luck today Matt and look forward to the next Santa Anita update

    1. Bullys Left Foot! Come on you Wolves

      I could not agree more Johnny5. some people seem to think they are paying out a fortune for this service, not getting top class free advice. Let them go and pay top price for rubbish advice and we will stick with the winners. Long live geegeez!!

    1. Chris

      Clueless Desperado’s that need a winner everyday so they can feel as if they are winning will always rate a service like this with a ‘1’. People who see further than the end of their nose will undoubtedly rate it with 8,9, or 10.

  2. Paul

    Hi Matt, as far as I’m concerned the SOTD is a cracking free service keep it up and you get top marks from me. There’s to many people out there who want immediate returns. I know if I stick with SOTD long term I will make a tidy sum. 10/10 !!

  3. Kevin Smith

    I couldn’t agree more with Johnny5. I’m a big fan of Matt and the logic that goes into all his advice. Those that seek to criticise need to have a long hard look at themselves.

  4. Chris A

    Hi Matt

    Hope you are having fun, enjoyed Vegas and looking forward to BC w/e.

    Just wanted to back up Johnny’s comments, the site is fantastic and the beauty of the internet is that it allows the ability to communicate and for people like me to enjoy your site and all the great contributions. However, that ability is abused by a minority who hide behind the safety of their screens and just seem to get their kicks on putting other people and their efforts down or, look at Twitter, just become downright abusive.

    Anyway, keep up the great work and looking forward to your BC views.

    Cheers, Chris

  5. Tom

    Matt

    Firstly I would like to make it clear that I think SoTD is a fantastic free service and the results speak for themselves.

    I would just like to point out on the subject of ‘Value’ that SoTD measures itself against the best available odds in the morning and the SP that you compare it to is based on an average odds of on course bookmakers.

    So whilst I agree in principal that getting a price better than SP is value, comparing the very best morning price isn’t quite comparing like with like.

    I will re-iterate that I don’t want to knock SoTD and the hours of work that goes into it and all the other articles on the site which I think is by far the best on the web, but I just wanted to make this point because it has been bugging me!

    Thanks

    Tom

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Tom

      It doesn’t matter where you get your price from. It’s about beating the SP, because SP is the very best barometer of true odds we know. Put simply, even money shots win close to 50% of the time; 2/1 shots close to 33% of the time; etc.

      Thus if you can consistently bet horses at 2/1 which are sent off at evens, you will win nearly 50% of the time but continually increment your investments. Time constraints preclude a more comprehensive response, but suffice it to say that the whole ethos of SotD (and Hugh Taylor and Pricewise and any tipping service worth its salt) is to find a horse with a strong statistical chance at a price which is bigger than it should be.

      That’s not an SP game, it’s a find the best price from wherever you can – and if you can insure it with BOG so much the better – game! 🙂

      Best,

      Matt

      p.s. many thanks for the kind words about the writers on geegeez.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Backed into 6’s as well, so clearly better was expected (had drifted on previous runs). The winner – 8/1 – was one of my five NH handicap trainers to follow. 🙂

      Ho hum – another try tomorrow.

      Matt

  6. Bob Smith

    Hi Matt – I managed to get 12/1 on Present to You late night with P.P. (G.P.) – many thanks for some more great stuff. Maybe if we ignore the “no nothings” they will stop winding everyone up. Great site, great advice – do hope your son is doing well, bet your looking forward to getting home to see him. All the best to you & Chris – your top guys.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.