Monday's Result :
3.15 Ayr : Takingrisks @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, challenged after 4 out, led before next, headed before 2 out, soon ridden and no impression with front pair, lost 3rd after last)
Tuesday's runner goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Ask The Guru @ 4/1 BOG
Ran well last time out (5 days ago) here over course and distance he ran a good race and despite not winning he did make the frame, finishing third, just a length and a quarter off the pace, staying on.
He now drops down a class and a pound in weight to run off a mark of 63, which is 7lbs lower than his last winning mark of 70.
And since the start of 2013 in A/W handicaps of 5 to 16 runners, horses aged 2 to 7 running over a trip up to a furlong longer or shorter than defeat by less than 5 lengths in the previous 5 days are 143/661 (21.6% SR) for 219.8pts (+33.3% ROI).
That's a solid stat to back up the selection, but the more you break those numbers down, the more consistent the data looks, as...
- those rated (OR) 80 and below are 140/627 (22.3% SR) for 222.4pts (+35.5% ROI)
- those carrying 8-4 to9-7 are 133/603 (22.1% SR) for 215.6pts (+35.8% ROI)
- males are 105/464 (22.6% SR) for 147.9pts (+31.9% ROI)
- those beaten by a head to 3L LTO are 109/452 (24.1% SR) for 228.9pts (+50.6% ROI)
- Class 6 runners are 69/321 (21.5% SR) for 127.5pts (+39.7% ROI)
- those last seen 5 days ago are 53/239 (22.2% SR) for 102.1pts (+42.7% ROI)
- those finishing 3rd LTO are 37/174 (21.3% SR) for 80.7pts (+46.4% ROI)
- Lingfield runners are 29/141 (20.6% SR) for 30.8pts (+21.8% ROI)
- 6 yr olds are 26/110 (23.6% SR) for 66pts (+60% ROI)
So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Ask The Guru at 4/1 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook,Hills and/or BetVictor, who are currently (7.10pm) the standouts on this one. To check that's still the case, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS