Stat of the Day, 1st July 2017

Friday's Result :

6.00 Newcastle : Inaam @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 Raced keenly, held up towards rear, driven to chase leaders over 2f out, soon ridden and one pace, well held when lost place inside final furlong

Saturday's pick goes in the...

3.05 York...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Defoe @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

Three top 2 finishes from four starts (1201) for this 3 yr old so far and was a winner in this grade over 1m2f on soft ground last time out, 6 weeks ago. The recent rain in the North shouldn't affect him at all, as he's 2/2 on soft ground.

His trainer, Roger Varian, has an excellent record in Flat handicaps at the sharper end of the market and money put down on his runners seems well placed, as since the start of the 2013 campaign, those sent off at odds of 11/8 to 13/2 are 105/425 (24.7% SR) for 59.2pts (+13.9% ROI) profit. This suits the way I go about my betting perfectly as the vast majority of my bets (public and otherwise!) are within those parameters.

Of these 425 'cappers...

  • 3 yr olds are 68/273 (24.9%) for 41.7pts (+15.3%)
  • over trips of 8.5 to 12.5 furlongs : 57/196 (29.1%) for 78.3pts (+39.9%)
  • running 21-75 days after their last outing : 53/187 (28.3%) for 64.7pts (+34.6%)
  • on ground deemed softer than Good : 24/93 (25.8%) for 16pts (+17.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 18/84 (21.4%) for 14.6pts (+17.4%)
  • in the month of July : 23/77 (29.9%) for 32.2pts (+41.8%)
  • and here at York : 4/17 (23.5%) for 5.34pts (+31.4%)

Harry Bentley will be in the saddle today and he seems to have a knack of looking after well backed horses, as his record on favourites since the start of 2015 stands at 61/126 (48.4% SR) for profits of 50.8pts (+40.4% ROI) and these really are excellent figures, as we all know that blindly backing favourites is generally a one-way route to the poorhouse!

That thought aside for one moment, though, because of those 126 Bentley-ridden favs...

  • handicappers are 38/82 (46.3%) for 34.1pts (+41.7%)
  • LTO winners are 16/32 (50%) for 8.08pts (+25.3%)
  • those trained by Roger Varian : 14/28 (50%) for 14pts (+50%)
  • and on good to soft ground : 10/14 (71.4%) for 20pts (+142.8%)

...providing us with...a 1pt win bet on Defoe9/4 BOG which was generally available at 9.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 York...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 1st July 2017

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    Cheers Chris, even if I’m half disappointed having also had half a point e/w on Red Society. Good start to the month.
    Paul

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