Thursday's Result :
5.55 Newbury : Pharoh Jake @ 4/1 BOG still to run (result and report to follow later tonight)
Friday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Sidewinder at 100/30 BOG
Well, quite simply because this 2 yr old colt is trained just over 30 miles south of this track and hasn't far to travel.
I am, of course, joking and there's a little more to this than just the fact he lives in Malpas, Cheshire which sits between Wrexham and Nantwich. He's there, because he's trained by Tom Dascombe, who is one of the go-to guys when you want a bet at Haydock, especially under today's conditions, so let's take a closer look!
First up, we have an excellent overall record for the trainer at this venue, with 60 winners from 309 runners (19.4% SR) generating level stakes profits of 267.5pts at an amazing ROI of 86.6% since the start of the 2010 campaign. Those numbers alone make all his runners here worth backing. However, in the context of this raace, the following present an even stronger argument...
- Class 3 to 5 runners are 58/277 (20.9%) for 292.5pts (+105.6%)
- 2 to 4 yr olds are 53/263 (20.2%) for 255.9pts (+97.3%)
- those with a run in the last 60 days are 50/236 (21.2%) for 207.8pts (+88.1)
- males are 49/235 (20.9%) for 208.2pts (+88.6%)
- those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 45/212 (21.2%) for 131.5pts (+62%)
- handicappers are 37/170 (21.8%) for 186.2pts (+109.6%)
- over 6/7 furlongs : 24/131 (18.3%) for 128.8pts (+98.3%)
- at odds of 13/8 to 6/1 (43/115 (37.4%) for 96.4pts (+83.9%)
- on soft ground : 11/32 (34.4%) for 97.3pts (+303.9%)
- and wearing cheekpieces : 7/31 (22.6%) for 59.7pts (+35.5%)
You can, of course, mix and match the above criteria to make your own micro-systems, but this does dilute the sample size.
As for the horse, Sidewinder, he has finished 244 in his three runs to date and now drops in both class and trip after being outpaced late on over further than this last time out just over three weeks ago.
He has run on soft ground once before, when finishing as runner-up beaten by a neck after a slow start ob his debut, but only behind a horse with preiuous race experience. First-time cheekpieces are also applied today and with more rain in the offing, we should get a decent run for our money. I certainly hope so, as I'll be there in person to see how he gets on.
My trip to Haydock tomorrow means that Saturday's pick won't appear online until late Friday night or even early Saturday morning...
...but Friday's play is a 1pt win bet on Sidewinder at 100/30 BOG with Bet365, who were the market leaders at 5.25pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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