Stat of the Day, 1st February 2018

Wednesday's Result :

1.45 Leicester : Head To The Stars @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 6/4 Tracked leaders, took keen hold, went 2nd 6th, led before omitted 3 out, headed after 2 out, no impression on flat, wearily beaten by five lengths...

We start the new month with Thursday's...

3.35 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kayf Adventure @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m5.5f on Heavy ground worth £15,335 to the winner...

Why?

Philip Hobbs' 7 yr old gelding has 4 wins and 3 places from 10 starts so far, having previously won in bumpers, over hurdles and also over fences where he has 2 wins and a place from just four efforts including a win last time out. That was 26 days ago also here at Wincanton, also on heavy ground and although he's being asked to run an extra furlong today, he has previously won at this trip and further.

He has three wins from four heavy ground runs and has made the frame in each of the four races with Richard Johnson on his back, winning twice and with a good record in small fields (3 wins and a place from 4 in fields of less than 7 runners), there shouldn't be any fear of the unknown today.

Since 2011, the Hobbs/Johnson partnership is 66 from 352 (18.7% SR) for 79.4pts (+22.5% ROI) in Class 2/3 handicap chases, all with male runners and these include...

  • 7 to 9 yr olds at 47/222 (21.2%) for 83.7pts (+37.7%)
  • from November to march : 41/185 (22.2%) for 117.8pts (+63.7%)
  • 21-45 days since last run : 30/154 (19.5%) for 33.6pts (+21.8%)
  • and those dropping in class are 19/90 (21.1%) for 50.4pts (+56%)

This drop in class is also quite significant, as Philip's NH Handicap class droppers are 44/241 (18.3% SR) for 95.9pts (+39.8% ROI), which alone would have made the horse of interest, even more so when those last seen 21-45 days earlier are 23/13 (20.4%) for 99.7pts (+88.2%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Kayf Adventure @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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