Stat of the Day, 1st February 2013

Stat of the Day: 01/02/13

Stat of the Day: 01/02/13

Stat of the Day, 1st February 2013

So, January has been and gone and despite an indifferent month, SotD returned with 6.33pts profit (22.6% POI). This could have been improved slightly with the benefit of hindsight, had we gone E/W on yesterday's selection. Flying Award drifted out from my 9/2 as far as 6/1 at one point before returning as a runner-up at 11/2.

I know many of you took the E/W option at 6/1, which was good news for you and had that been available at the time I want to press, I'd have done the same! Nevertheless, I was happy enough with the selection, I just felt that the jockey needed to have done a little bit more earlier on to pressurize the winner.

We're off to Yorkshire today, and just like yesterday we've testing ground (officially soft) and once again the trip is a sapping 3 miles 1.5 furlongs for a 12-runner, Class 3 Handicap Hurdle, shown on your racecards as the...

2.45 Catterick

I'm not often one to advise the blanket/blind backing of a trainer, but sometimes there's profitable angles in doing so. In recent times, Malcolm Jefferson has excelled in producing consistent returns from handicap races.

If we look at Mr. Jefferson's horses in NH handicap contests only: he has saddled 37 winners from 212 races since the start of 2011: this strike rate of 17.45% is profitable to the tune of 174pts at SP. That's a return of 82% on your money, which would be improved at either betfair SP or by taking early BOG odds.

In races of 5 runners of more: 79 successful E/W bets from 208 (38%) yielding 235pts profit at SP (56.5% return)

These figures are impressive enough to warrant attention, but as we all know, trainers are creatures of habit and tend to have their horses "ready" at certain specific times of the year and Malcolm seems to be no exception. During the two-year time frame mentioned above, 23 of those runners ran in the month of February, yielding five winners (21.7%) and a total of eleven placed finishes (47.8%). These results have meant profits of 33.5pts (145.7%) for the win backers, whilst a more cautious E/W approach has still netted 55pts (119.6%)

Mr Jefferson has two such runners today: Quite The Man would look to have a squeak of an E/W chance if the blinkers take effect in the 3.55 race (currently 12/1), but I think the stable's better chance lies with Sun Cloud.

Sun Cloud looked very much like an improving sort on the up when landing a 3m1f contest on soft ground at Wetherby back in November, but was admittedly disappointing next time out at Doncaster. He laboured home as a 5th placed 3/1 favourite that day, some 28 lengths off the winner. the general consensus was that the race had come too soon after his Wetherby exertions (just 14 days between the two) and he's had a good nine-week rest since then and is expected to fire again now fresh.

I'm happy to take another chance of him picking up where he left off at Wetherby and putting the Doncaster run down to being the wrong time for him and my play today is 0.5pts E/W on Sun Cloud at 10/1 BOG with Boylesports, but for the odds at your preferred bookmaker...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.45 Catterick

 

***It seems the price has changed whilst I was typing the post! Best price is now 8/1 (at 11.00 am), so we'll take 8/1 as our advised price.***

 

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24 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 1st February 2013

  1. Josh W

    yes good each way shout i think. not many of these horses proven at class and other conditions, so likely a horse still improving will go close. I couldnt have the fav with his record. think sun cloud and green wizard both each way are the ones to be on.
    here is hoping!

  2. Ian

    Napped it earlier this morning when it was 11/1 the main danger imho is the Sue Smith horse Green Wizard who seems a stamina laden plodder so GOOD LUCK with Sun Cloud…

  3. Todd

    Unlucky Chris. Looked like the winner all the way around. I did it e/w too but I seriously thought it was going to win for a long way. The best price was 15/2 5 minutes after you posted though. I never saw 8/1 or 10/1 available at all and I was right onto it this morning.

          1. Todd

            It doesn’t show 11.20am Chris, only 11.22am, but I’m not complaining. I do keep saying that 🙂 I thought we were on the winner all the way around there. It was cruising. Nice pick either way, regardless of the price. (and we’re only talking 1/2 a point, because it was still 15/2 when I got there!)

            Keep up the good work!

          2. Chris Worrall Post author

            Hi Todd,
            That timeline just shows the timing of a change in odds. This means that the 8/1 disappeared at 11.22. It might seem like I’m labouring the point here and it’s not all aimed at you, but we pride ourselves on the transparency of our work and I just wouldn’t want anyone to think we were over-inflated prices, like many others out there do.

            Cheers!

  4. Todd

    I understand the transparency thing Chris, but where do I go to see where that particular horse was available at 8/1? I don’t get it. The link you sent me said it was 13/2. I didn’t understand it before either when you had a 16/1 winner who was only available at 10/1 or 8/1 earlier in the month. I’ve got your RSS feed on my Iphone and I get your updates instantly, but that winner was half the price the second I got it. I think your +6 point profit for January is being generous to yourselves now, because I can’t quite understand how anyone else got on at the prices you’re quoting.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Todd,
      If you look at that timeline for Boylesports, you’ll see that the prices changed to 10/1 at 0942, 8/1 at 1030, 13/2 at 1122. Therefore from 0942 to 1030, it was 10/1 (which I took!). At 1030 the price was cut to 8/1, where it remained until the next price change at 1122. I really don’t understand where you’re coming from with this and I certainly take offence at your suggestion that we’ve gilded the lily in January.

  5. Todd

    I understand now Chris – I can see it – and I don’t mean you any offence, not at all. I came on here today, my very first post, to tell you that I thought that was a brilliant tip today. I do think that the 16/1 shot a couple of weeks back is open to question though (it was 10/1 at best when most people woke up!!) but let’s not get into that. You do a good job here of uncovering profitable bets. I can see that.

  6. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Just got back from Lingfield and see another ……. has found the site ! Missed Sun Cloud on SotD BUT fortunately picked it up through the “Five Trainers to Follow” kindly given by Matt last year.
    Bad day at Lingfield – but thanks to Mr Jefferson, losses reduced somewhat.
    Many Thanks

    1. Todd

      Thanks for your warm welcome Bob.

      I was following Nag-Nag-Nag since before GeeGeez even existed so pull your neck in mate.

      As for Matt’s “Trainers To Follow” that’s not too bad. 13 points profit and maybe 20 points at BFSP over the last few months, so not bad at all.

      Please don’t try to wind me up though Bob. Making out you’re something you’re not, and that I’m something that you’ve completely misinterpreted. That’s not good mate.

      Thanks.

  7. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Hi Chris – Just checked my P.P. account and I got 10/1 B.P.G. @ 09.34 a.m. this morning – prior to going to Lingfield and losing money !!!!

  8. Todd

    Chris, well done today mate. Like I said earlier, I thought that one was the winner from a long way out. It wasn’t to be, but hey ho. I do take offence at being called “a so-and-so” just for mentioning stuff about the odds, but I’m not going to get into an argument about it. Bob obviously knows the STOTD horses before they’re even released. He was on that one today a full 86 minutes before you even posted. How can I, or any other of your readers, compete with that??? You know what I mean? Well played, Bob.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Bob got on the horse before I posted it, because we’d already suggested backing the Jefferson horses in our excellent trainers to follow feature that Matt gave to all readers free of charge. The SotD selection reinforced that message and further filtered down to the trainers results being even better in February. Hopefully this will clarify why/how Bob managed to back it before most of us and we can get back to the task in hand (beating the bookies!) and put an end to the bickering.

  9. Ian

    For christs sake….Chris gives you a very nice placed horse which was widely available at 10/1 prior to 10am and which I got 11/1 on at bet 365 prior to 9am. Bob like several others I am sure is following an in form trainer whose horses as in previous years are running well and then people start pontificating as to whether it was 8/1 or 15/2 or 10/1……wake up and smell the coffee and enjoy a profitable tip from SoTD – again!

    WELL DONE Sotd!

    1. Todd

      Yes, I’ve got that trainer guide. I didn’t notice that was one of the horses yesterday. It’s not been too bad. 11 points profit from 84 bets.

      I’m not quibbling about the prices that much. There have been a few where no-one got on at the prices stated. It’s a free service, one that I read every single day, so I’m not complaining. I’m big enough and ugly enough to know that the winners matter not but the odds do. That’s when it pisses me off. When I get an instant “ping” on my phone, go straight to Oddschecker and the prices mentioned are no longer available. I’m FAST about it too. Faster than most I expect so the monthly updates quoting X amount of profit are seriously skewed if you ask me. It’s just my opinion. Above this box it says “That’s what I think, but what do YOU think?” and I’m telling you what I think! Hehe.

  10. Stuart

    Well said, Ian, hear hear.

    This has to be one of the best sites on the Internet (out of many millions of others in total, and however many thousands to do with horse racing?) – Matt and Chris must put in a lot of hours of hard work for us all, and all I have to say is “THANK YOU, CHAPS!”

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