Stat of the Day, 1st December 2017

Thursday's Result :

1.20 Taunton : Silent Steps @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Led to 3rd, remained with leader, led before 2 out, soon pushed along and outpaced, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by just three quarters of a length.

So no winning end to November, but a small profit was made over the month and we now kick off December with Friday's...

2.10 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tellovoi @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 6, A/W Handicap over 1m on Polytrack worth £2588 to the winner.

A 9 yr old gelding, 2lbs the right side of the weights who came very close Newcastle a week ago despite missing the break, which is far from ideal over 7f! That said he finished the strongest, managing to get within a length of a winner who he was conceding weight to. An extra furlong that day would have seen him win and he gets that extension here today.

He's already got 2 wins and 3 places from 9 starts here and his overall A/W record includes...

  • 4 wins and a place from 9 runs in December/January
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 9 runs over 1m
  • 3 wins and a place from 7 priced at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins and 2 places from 5 when sent off as favourite
  • 2 wins and 4 places from 7 at Class 6
  • 2 wins from 3 in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 1 win and 1 place from 3 over course and distance
  • and 1 win and 1 place from 3 within a week of his last run.

In addition to the above, it's certainly worth noting that in A/W handicaps here at Southwell since the start of 2014, 6-10 yr old males who had the highest Official Rating in the race have won 61 of 300 (20.3% SR) for 165.3pts (+55.1% ROI) after running in a handicap last time out.

Of these 300 "top weights"...

  • Class 4 to 6 runners are 56/270 (20.7%) for 173.1pts (+64.1%)
  • in fields of 5 to 11 runners : 55/239 (23%) for 155.5pts (+65.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 28/133 (21.1%) for 45.2pts (+34%)
  • running within 6-10 days of last run : 23/62 (37.1%) for 59.6pts (+96.1%)
  • LTO runners-up are 8/33 (24.2%) for 54.4pts (+164.8%)
  • and those beaten by 0.25 to 1 length LTO are 4/16 (25%) for 28.5pts (+177.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Tellovoi @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 5.45pm on Thursday, but there was some 10/3 BOG (Sky) and some 3/1 non-BOG until Morning (Betfred/Totesport) around for those able to take advantage.

I'm on with Sky, but in the interests of fairness and transparency I'll be recording an 11/4 BOG bet for the records. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

1 thought on “Stat of the Day, 1st December 2017

  1. Paul Kendall

    Of interest to some users of Oddschecker may be the fact that Ladbrokes, who have a little green tick to indicate BOG on tomorrow’s races, don’t actually offer it until the next day, although they’re usually slow with the early prices anyway. As are Coral, their partners in crime who do offer BOG on the day before but are prone to withdrawing it from ‘selected’ customers without alerting you to the fact. [IBAS usually sorts that out].

    But returning to Ladbrokes, wise bettors should also note that, and I quote directly from their BOG t&cs: “10. Any bets placed from PaySafe, MoneyBookers and Neteller deposits will not qualify for this offer.”

    You haven’t only got to try and find a winner nowadays, you’ve got to beat the bookmakers t&cs to be in with a chance of making a profit.

    (I’ll get down off my soapbox now)

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