Stat of the Day, 1st August 2013
It looked like we were going to record back to back successes yesterday, as So Beloved was leading well into the final furlong, but we had to eventually settle for a third place finish at 9/2. Thankfully we had not only hedged our bets and gone E/W, but we'd also got on at 17/2, a price almost double the SP.
This meant that we made a small 0.35pt profit from the race, but that helped us close July off with an overall profit of 16.48 pts for the month and a 1 in 3 strike rate..
Today's contest is a one mile, Class 5 handicap on good to soft ground. We're expecting a total of 11 runners to contest the...
Nottingham is another of those tracks that favours previous course and distance winners on their return, especially if they're coming back here on the back of a win last time out, irrespective of where they ran last time.
In fact the figures for 2011 to 2013 show that 35 previous C&D winners have run again here after winning last time out, with ten of them going on to notch up successive victories. That's a strike rate of some 28.6% with highly impressive profit figures of 36.46pts, an ROI of 104.2%.
Unusually those stats throw up two potential qualifiers in the same race today, as both Not Rigg and West End Lad fit the bill. Not Rigg won over C&D last time out almost four weeks ago, but that was his first win at the ninth attempt and will need a career best performance to take this race. West End Lad, on the other hand, is a veteran now at the age of 10 and today will be his 97th race. He has been very profitable to back throughout his career, winning 17 of his previous 96 races (S/R = 17.7%), generating profits of 114.8pts, or 119.6% of stakes.
West End Lad is also a bit of a course and distance specialist, with six wins and two places from sixteen runs over a mile here. A 50% place strike is impressive enough, but to actually win 37.5% of all attempts over any specified course and distance is phenomenal. Incidentally those six wins have helped him achieve level stakes profits of 47.21pts (ROI = +295%)
Our selection will be ridden by 3lb claimer Mark Coumbe today and West End Lad's trainer Roy Bowring is one of the game's leading exponents in the art of booking a claiming jockey to good effect. Since 2010, Roy has a 13 from 31 record when using a jockey with a 3lb claim on horses priced at 6/1 or under, that's a strike rate of 41.9% for profits of 50.6pts (+163.2% ROI), whilst that record reads 9/15 for 40.6pts (S/R 60%, ROI 271%) when Mark Coumbe is that 3lb claimer.
West End Lad was a winner here just 13 days ago and although he gone up the ratings by 7lbs to run off a mark of 72, the jockey can relieve him of three of those pounds, whilst it should be noted that he won off a mark of 77 last year and was also placed off 85 just over a year ago, so this isn't beyond him today. He'll enjoy the underfoot cut in the ground, having already won twice and been placed once in six races on good to soft ground.
BetVictor are currently offering 5/1 BOG about West End Lad and I'm happy enough to take that, As I feel he may well shorten to around 4/1, as the day progresses. No E/W hedging/fudging today tough: the call is a 1pt win bet on West End Lad at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor, but you can see what your bookie is offering if you...