Stat of the Day, 19th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2013

No joy, but no disgrace yesterday for Srucahan, who finished 5th of the 12 runners at an SP of 12/1, after we'd taken 14's earlier in the day. The result was far closer than it seems, as our selection was only beaten by a length in an exciting finish.

The forecasted heavy ground had dried out a little and was officially soft and I think that had the going not improved, the leaders wouldn't have been able to go as quick late on and we'd be celebrating a place at the very least.

Regardless of that, Srucahan gave us a great run for our money at odds longer than I'd usually go for and I should also note that Paul Deegan's other runner at Listowel was second at 16/1.

Back to England today and more specifically Yorkshire for the...

4.00 Pontefract

Where Hughie Morrison runs Jubilante in this Class 3 Fillies handicap over six furlongs. On the face of things, she's not the obvious pick in this race: in fact our excellent interactive racecard suggests that there a few others best suited today.

However, the going is good to firm with further rain expected and an easing of the ground back to Good would play into her hands, as she has one win and one second place from her two efforts on good ground. She also has some decent efforts behind her on good to soft, but I doubt it'll get that wet!

(Incidentally, you can find all this out via the drop down buttons on the Race Analysis section of the racecard).

Closer inspection of her record to date shows that this is her first effort in this grade, but she's actually stepping down in class to compete here, after having contested a couple of decent Class 2 handicaps at Newmarket over the summer.

She was only beaten by a neck over today's 6f trip in the first of those races and she went down by just over 2 lengths when finishing 5th of 11 over 7 furlongs, where she didn't quite see the trip out.

Hughie Morrison is quite adept at dropping horses down a class in handicap events, as he has done so with 71 horses in the last three years, of which 14 (19.72%) have been returned as winners, generating 28.4pts (+40% ROI) profit in the process.

Those results are from backing all his runners blindly when dropped in class in a handicap race, but closer inspection shows that the bulk of the winners are priced in what I loosely see as SotD territory, ie 5/2 or over, but below 12/1.

I do this, because there's little profit to be made from the shorties and the longer shots don't win often enough to keep the scoreboard ticking.

If you're happy to stick with some rigid odds parameters, then the 5/2 to 11/1 bracket has yielded 13 of those 14 winners from above, but has eliminated 25 losing horses, taking the record to 13 from 46 (28.3% SR) for 50.6pts (+110% ROI) profits: figures that are music to my ears.

Jubilante has improved greatly over the last 12 months and has been consistent, if not prolific, as her record of 321235 shows. She's drawn well today and the drop in both class and trip are sure to help her in her bid to take this one today. I expect this to be a strongly run race, which will also be of benefit to us today, she seems to perform better when there's some early pace for her to follow.

She's been off the track for a couple of months and should be fresh and ready to go. If she shows anything like the form from Newmarket in the summer, then a 1pt win bet on Jubilante at 4/1 BOG with Stan James should us drawing from the well again. That 4/1 price is the best on offer, but I'm aware of the volatility of these markets, so please...

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The card for today's race is right here!

 

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