Stat of the Day, 19th October 2015

Stat of the Day, 19th October 2015

Saturday's Result :

4.55 Ffos Las : Forever My Friend @ 3/1 BOG : 4th at 11/4 jt fav (Chased leaders, mistake 11th, pushed along 6 out, never a threat and beaten by 17 lengths)

Monday's selection runs in the...

4.00 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gone Too Far at 11/4 BOG

Why?

Trainer Alan King has saddled up 34 winners from just 90 runners (37.8% SR) for 19.2pts (+21.3% ROI) of level stakes profits here at Plumpton since the start of 2008.

Those ridden by today's jockey Wayne Hutchinson are 14/28 (50% SR) for 16.5pts (+59% ROI) profit and those running in chases are equally impressive with 13 wins from 27 (48.2% SR) for 12pts profit at an ROI of 44.4% and those chasers ridden by Wayne Hutchinson are 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 10.5pts (+262.3% ROI) with all four priced at 4/1 or shorter.

Wayne now rides a horse in form, that has won 2 of his last three starts over fences (all with Wayne in the saddle) taking the horse/jockey partnership to 3 wins from 6.

Gone Too Far has 3 wins and a place from five starts on good ground, he has 2 wins and a place from five runs at 2m3.5f/2m4f and he has won four times and been placed on five other occasions from the 10 races in which he has been sent off at odds below 9/2.

And my recommended bet?

1pt win on Gone Too Far at 11/4 BOG with Coral. You can also get this price at Hills and BetVictor, so please...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

24 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 19th October 2015

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    Cheers Chris. I’ve followed you, as ever (still over a grand up to £40 stakes since taking out the lifetime subsciption 3 months ago), but had already put a small bet on Andy Kelly at 6.6 on Betfair…was a recommended tracker – a service you follow – when sent chasing, especially if straight into handicaps. Looks a very interesting race.
    Paul

  2. Doshtosh

    Hills were happy to accommodate me with their 11/4 for £18 after a two minute wait whilst “a trader” (insert a cowardly piece of crap, for trader) decided……They should be boiled alive, after a right good hiding, first…….every last one of them!

  3. FGR

    Hills were one of the first firms to restrict me. Still think we should have a ‘name and shame’ bookie feature on here. Some prominent, bad publicity might embarrass them into laying a decent bet.

  4. Manyanga

    On as usual, though also restricted by William Hill – probably because I placed the bet in the early hours. This morning the price has drifted a little on Betfair.

    Just looking at GeeGeez stats, it seems to be in non-handicap races that King really excels at Plumpton, with 25 winners from 56 runs since 2009. In handicaps he is ‘only’ 7 from 28.

    King has Wishing And Hoping in a Maiden Hurdle in the 14.30, though a short-priced favourite.

  5. bensoncb

    Chris, I wonder how many of SotD selections start at a lower price than what most of us manage to get on at due to the volume of GG subscribers money? So, even though I agree normally about beating the SP is a golden road over time, I just wonder if the original price would actually go lower in most cases if it was not the SotD selection?

    So, in most cases it may well be you and the rest us who has driven down the price, rather than stable, owner or someone else’s money.

    Not sure if I have made my point very clearly, but I wonder whether it is worth continually stating that we have beaten the SP.

    Anyway, I am sure the winners are about to flow!

    IvantheV

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      It’s an inexact science, but if we’re making any assumptions, then surely it’s also fair to guess that most SotD money goes on before the 10.00 to 10.30am markets.
      Most of our runners shorten further after 10.30am until race-time, so it’s not us driving that price down.

      Also, I’d wager that not many of us are betting at Betfair SP, which is considered a fairly true reflection of a horse’s chances and we’re beating those prices more often than not to.

      But, hey, I’m only stating a fact when I say we beat SP. Does a fact become less valid/true if you repeat it?

  6. bensoncb

    Fair points Chris. I think that more and more of us, at some stage, will be going with Betfair or Betfair SP, as the bookies continue to restrict/close our accounts, even when most of us are having a “difficult” September.

    IvantheV

  7. retfordpaul

    I’ve had my account closed with Boylesports, BOG withdrawn by Stan James and the free bet club offer revoked by Skybet.
    And I only bet to relatively small stakes.

  8. DaultonLee

    Hi guys,

    Just signed up today to follow SOTD.

    Thanks to Paul, as it appears the Stats selections have been performing poorly for quite a while I backed Andy Kelly too and managed to show a decent profit on the race.

    Cheers

  9. Saramand

    Hi Chris,
    We all go through difficult phases, par for the course, a good run follows a bad’un. and am sure you have more experience than most.
    Quickie stat wise. I’ve only been a member for a couple of months and started brilliantly but this losing run is a b***** Am wondering what your longest winning (4 in August) and longest losing runs (current is 11 i think) have been (in recent history!)
    Would be fascinated to know?
    Thanks in advance, and am sure normal service WILL be resumed SOON (yes?)
    cheers
    Richard

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Quite frankly, the service overperformed in the March to August period and we’re seeing a correction in the statistical data.

      As you all know, I’m a numbers man and for the first three and a half years of SoTD, until the end of March this year we ran at a fairly constant 28.5%-ish (roughly 2-in 7) strike rate and that’s a historical figure from over 1000 selections producing profits at an ROI of around 22%. (Actual figures to 31/03/15 were 307/1080 = 28.42% SR for 240.12pts at 22.23% ROI)

      Then over the 5 month purple patch I hit 46 winners from 122 selections at a rate of 37.7% for profits of 93.12pts at an ROI of 76.32%.

      The seven months from April 1st to the end of October should by rights give us 49 winners from 171 selections for 38pts profit based on historical data (which, if we’re honest is how I find the selections, so we can’t have it both ways). We’ve 11 more days to run this month, but since April 1st, we’re 52/160 (32.5% SR) for 85.12pts (+53.2% ROI), so to be honest, I’m not concerned about this levelling out period and we’re still ahead of schedule for the year.

      I think it’s also fair to point out that this current run, whilst being “a b***** ” as you put it and also doing another members’ brains in, is actually just an 8pt loss since 1st September.

      As for longest runs, I think they stand at 7 and 19, but don’t quote me, such records don’t concern me. Somebody else will no doubt put the record straight.

  10. Everyone calls me Paul

    Ha…nothing to do with me, guys. Only posted cos I know Chris follows Racing Consultants (and it seems they didn’t even mention it on there, it was a separate piece by one of them). I basically back what I’m told to (lol) and SotD is the only place I play to £40 per point. Glad you got on, Lee, but in general don’t take much notice what I put up unless there’s a good reason as outlined on this one. Follow SotD…form / class, and all that.
    Paul

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      In fairness to you, Paul, Racing Consultants mentioned the horse as one to watch, but it was in a publication I’d not read until you highlighted it today!

      Racing Consultants is an excellent service and they put the horse up as a 2pt win bet at 9/2 this morning. They are one of the few services I’d be happy to promote and Both Rory and David have a massive wealth of racing knowledge and I’d love to know as much as they do.

      If you want to know more about their services, you should follow this link.

  11. Manyanga

    Interested to hear from RetfordPaul and BensonCB about account restrictions, also in the light of the excellent piece Matt wrote about the use of iesnare (and ?? other spying software). The BBC made the same startling discovery (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34550617) in an article published on their website a couple of days ago – ‘Bookmakers are ‘refusing to take best’ from successful gamblers’.

    I wonder what proportion of GeeGeez members are being restricted, and by which bookmakers. I often see Betfair odds responding quickly when popular tipsters issue their tips, even when there are still better odds available from bookies. Presumably punters are being forced onto the exchanges. Bizarre that those who still have bookie accounts will even be in a position to indulge in a bit of arbitrage by taking the lower odds available on Betfair as lays.

  12. jamesfeeney

    As Chris has pointed out and flagged many times a losing run simply had to come. This is 1 a day service so a few near misses and second places instead of first and all of a sudden you have a bad run. It is possible for a low turnover service to go a full month without a winner because there aren’t 3 or 4 selections every day, and still be perfectly profitable. I follow another 1 a day service that has slightly higher odds who could go 40 days without a win but still makes a great profit. You can use your own discretion and avoid a few losers if you like but your betting bank will never be one continuous upward curve. If you have faith in any proven service it will come right again and the profits start heading upwards eventually.

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