Stat of the Day, 19th November 2015
Wednesday's Result :
4.00 Chepstow : Pobbles Bay @ 3/1 BOG : 5th of 7 at 7/2 (Held up in rear, pushed along 6th, never a factor, beaten by 29.5 lengths!)
Thursday's selection runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Whataknight @ 4/1 BOG
Firstly, he's trained by Harry Fry, who you can back blindly and make good money. 106 winners from 421 runners is an excellent 25.2% strike rate and the 158.9pts of level stakes profit is a return of 37.7% above your stakes. So, he's one of the few "bet and forget" trainers around. I do appreciate that not all of you want to back all his runners, so if you wanted an angle relative to this race, you could try the following either in isolation or in combinations...
- males : 78/325 (24% SR) for 134.3pts (41.3% ROI)
- aged 5-7 : 76/283 (26.9% SR) for 161.4pts (+57.1% ROI)
- Class 4 : 39/149 (26.2% SR) for 95.2pts (+63.9% ROI)
- Soft ground : 27/90 (30% SR) for 42.4pts (47.1% ROI)
- Novice hurdlers below 10/1 : 28/82 (34.2% SR) for 30.9pts (+37.7% ROI)
- at Wincanton : 15/58 (25.9% SR) for 26.2pts (+45.1% ROI)
- ridden by Liam McKenna : 2/4 (50% SR) for 12pts (+300% ROI)
Today is Whataknight's debut under Rules, but he does come here off the back of five consecutive PTP wins, including two on soft ground, so he's clearly no mug, but more interesting (to me, anyway!) is the fact that his father is one of my favourite sires, Midnight Legend!
I like to back Midnight Legend progeny, because, like Harry Fry earlier, they're simply profitable. Since the start of 2008, we're looking at 430 winners from 2969 (14.5% SR) attempts and a strike rate of better than 1-in-7 from a sample size approaching 3,000 is phenomenal and has, in turn, generated some 720.6pts profit at an ROI of 24.3%, which is incredible.
Obviously, not everyone wants over 350 bets a year from one source, so if that's the case with you, maybe one of these sample sizes pertinent to this contest will suit you better...
- 5-8 yr olds : 311/1979 (15.7% SR) for 661.6pts (+33.4% ROI)
- September-March inclusive : 307/1955 (15.7% SR) for 780.7pts (+40% ROI)
- males : 246/1684 (14.6% SR) for 420.1pts (+25% ROI)
- non-handicaps : 248/1592 (15.6% SR) for 608.3pts (+38.2% ROI)
- races of 10-13 runners : 130/1014 (12.8% SR) for 528.9pts (+52.2% ROI)
- novices : 116/792 (14.7% SR) for 253.1pts (+32% ROI)
- novice hurdlers : 67/577 (11.6% SR) for 107.2pts (+18.6% ROI)
- soft ground : 90/558 (16.1% SR) for 349.1pts (+62.6% ROI)
- trained by Harry Fry : 3/12 (25% SR) for 9.3pts (+77.5% ROI)
And my recommended bet?
A 1pt win bet on Whataknight at 4/1 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook, whilst Ladbrokes also offer the same price but don't/won't go BOG until morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS