Stat of the Day, 19th November 2014
Some days I get it right and some days I get it wrong. I hold my hands up and say I got it wrong at Doncaster on Tuesday.
I thought Shadows lengthen was a decent value bet at 5/1 and that he'd be a serious contender to win. He actually drifted all day and was sent off at 9/1 and ran accordingly. He was held up for a run and when asked for an effort, it didn't last long before he had to be ridden before capitulating tamely.
He eventually finished 5th of 9, almost 20 lengths off the pace and I expect better in Wednesday's...
Trainer Roger Charlton is having a decent time of it on the All-Weather this year, notching up 14 winners from 62 runners (22.6% SR) and has generated 33.1pts (+53.3% ROI) level stakes profits in the process.
He's also modestly profitable to follow blindly here at Kempton with 21 winners from 158 (13.3% SR) producing 20.3pts profit at an ROI of 12.9% since the start of 2010.
Roger's sole runner at this track today, Captain Cat, will be ridden by James Doyle, who is also having a good year on the sand, winning 41 of 179 races (22.9% SR) for 62.5pts (+34.9% ROI) with a 23/106 (21.7% SR) record here at Kempton. James has been particularly successful at the sharper end of the market here this year winning 17 of 35 races (48.6% SR) when his mount has been in the Evens to 9/2 bracket, where we're sure to be playing today. That excellent 17/35 record has given rise to level stakes profits of 25.2pts at an ROI of 72%.
Yet, although both jockey and trainer have good stats behind them , the real focus of today's piece has to be the horse, Captain Cat, who has a great set of figures behind to back up the selection today.
- He has a record of 1221 on the All-Weather (21 here at Kempton).
- He has five wins and five places from 13 runs over today's trip, including a course and distance win.
- He has won three of the eight races ridden by James Doyle and made the frame in four of the five defeats.
- He has three wins and two places from six races of 12-15 runners.
- He has won four times and placed four times from 9 runs in the last year.
His only failure to make the frame in the last year was a creditable 5th place finish when beaten by 4 lengths on the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot and he clearly sets the standard here today. This is a drop in quality for him here, having been racing successfully at Group level for his last five contests.
There's not actually much more to add about Captain Cat, other than to say I'd take the 3/1 BOG on offer from Betfair's Sportsbook whilst you can, as 11/4 BOG seems to be the norm elsewhere as you'll see when you...
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