Stat of the Day, 19th May 2015
We've been doing SotD for over three and a half years now and whilst a 28.5% (-ish) strike rate is excellent, it means we still get it wrong five times from seven on average, but thankfully most of the losers give us a run for our money.
However, on (admittedly rare) occasions, we throw in a right old clunker and that, I'm afraid, is what you got yesterday. Surround Sound was very weak in the market and our 5/2 advice looked lamentable, as he was sent off at 6/1, a price which incidentally actually rendered him a non-qualifier of the stats I'd used to back up the selection.
Anyway, our money was down, so there was nothing we could do and he ran a bit of a stinker, folding tamely in the final furlongs on his way to finishing 9th of 12, 30-odd lengths off the pace, as the money was proven right.
After that run, another "leftfield" selection might be everyone's cup of tea, but I can't help but think I've found an overpriced runner in the...
In the shape of Mick Appleby's Moon River, who can currently be backed at 12/1 BOG!
She takes her place in a 14-runner, Class 5 handicap over 6 furlongs on good ground and whilst it's true that her best form is on the A/W, she did run very creditably on turf last time out, where her performance was far better than the bare result would suggest.
She finished 4th of 5 here at Nottingham that day but beaten by less than three lengths on unsuitably soft ground in a similarly unsuitable small field size.
She has performed better on better ground and with more runners, both of which she'll get today and with the added benefit of previous recent course experience and an excellent draw (14 of 14), there's plenty in her favour, if (and it is an if!) she runs to her ability.
She's trained by Mick Appleby, whose record in Flat handicaps since 2010 shows 81 winners from 606 (13.4% SR) runners for level stakes profits of 332.1pts at an ROI of 53.2%, so basically blind backing is very profitable.
We can (of course!) refine that data down and I'm inclined to do it as follows with today's contest in mind (in order of sample size)...
Over trips of 5 to 12 furlongs : 75/541 (13.9% SR) for 296.5pts (+54.8% ROI)
At Class 4 & below : 69/482 (14.3% SR) for for 309.3pts (+64.2% ROI)
At odds of 4/1 to 20/1 : 61/420 (14.5% SR) for 290.8pts (+69.2% ROI)
Here at Nottingham : 22/98 (22.5% SR) for 132.9pts (+135.6% ROI)
All of which then took me to the point where I found that Mick Appleby's Class 4 to 6 flat handicappers running 5 to 12 furlongs at odds of 4/1 to 20/1 had won 46 of 278 races, for a 16.6% strike rate and an ROI of 83.2% achieved via profits of some 231.2pts.
Here at Nottingham, there were 12 winners from 50 fitting that micro-system with that 24% ratio returning 98.1pts at 196.2% ROI with the Class 4/5 runners over 5 to 10 furlongs winning 11 of 34 (32.4% SR) for 103.3pts (+303.7% ROI).
Andrew Mullen is the saddle today and his record on the back of an Appleby handicapper makes enjoyable reading too, as his 90 winners from 591 runners not only represents a very healthy 15.2% strike rate, it has also yielded lots of profit : 93.6pts at an ROI of 15.8% to be more precise.
Rather more interestingly and relevant to today's contest, 10 of those 90 winners came from just 37 rides here at Nottingham with the resultant 27% strike rate producing 56.3pts profit at a staggering ROI of 152.1%.
Moon River drops down in class today...
That last run here at Nottingham that I mentioned earlier was a Class 4 event and she now drops down to Class 5 which prompted me to suggest a similar level of performance could be enough today. But why listen to my conjecture, when I have some hard numbers to back up my theories? 😀
Mick Appleby's Flat handicappers dropping down a class have won 18 of 118 (15.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 93.5pts (+79.2% ROI). Those dropping down to today's Class 5 level are 9/45 (20% SR) for 67.1pts (+149.1% ROI), whilst those in the 7/1 to 16/1 bracket are 11/58 (19% SR) for 87.6pts (+151% ROI).
If we look at the 45 Class 5 runners in isolation, we see that the optimum odds range is 9/2 to 14/1, which should include Moon River today and the results from those criteria are 6 winners from 30 (20% SR) for profits of 39.7pts (+132.2% ROI).
Despite the lofty price tag on Moon River, there's a lot to like about her statistically and based on her last run here at this track, allied to a decent draw today, she looks (to me, at least) good value at the 12/1 BOG on offer from Hills. The same price is available at Ladbrokes, but they don't go BOG until 9.00am, but there is plenty of 11/1 around.
At such long odds, it would be foolish not to take out an insurance policy in case she runs well and just fails, so the call for Tuesday is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Moon River at 12/1 BOG with Hills. You can check that's still available by...
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