Stat of the Day, 19th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th June 2015

No four-timer to report, I'm afraid as Criminalistic was beaten into 2nd place by fellow 2/1 joint favourite Heraldic, who got first run, as our runner was badly outpaced in the midsection of the race.

By the time the penny finally dropped, the race was already lost and our runner was well over a dozen lengths adrift back in fourth or fifth place. To his credit, he stuck to the task in hand and fairly motored towards the line.

He made up plenty of ground, passed a few rivals and was eventually a 6-lengths runner-up. It was a very promising end to the race, but not one that paid out! Something I aim to rectify in Lincolnshire on Friday afternoon in the...

3.55 Market Rasen:

And a 3/1 BOG bet on Chris Bealby's 6yr old in-form hurdler Ruaraidh Hugh, who in the last 10 weeks has finished 1211 in his four outings.

Chris Bealby's handicappers are 15/82 here at Market Rasen since the start of 2008, with that 18.3% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 34.6pts at an ROI of 42.2%.

His handicap hurdlers are 7/36 (19.4% SR) for 33.6pts (+93.2% ROI) here and more recently ie since 2011, they are 5/20 (25% SR) for 15.24pts (+76.2% ROI).

Ruaraidh Hugh was last seen a fortnight ago, when winning here by 8 lengths and whilst the margin of victory was impressive, it was the manner of the win that caught my eye more. He didn't actually take the lead until the last hurdle, but stayed on strongly and quickened away on the run-in, suggesting that the step back up in trip here would suit.

Since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers, aged 4 to 8, rated (OR) 80 to 130, carrying 9-13 to 10-13 and who won a handicap hurdle last time out 3 to 60 days ago are 160/771 (20.9% SR) for 131.2pts (+17% ROI) profit.

Six year olds are 52/241 (21.6% SR) for 64.95pts (+27% ROI), with those priced in the broad 6/4 to 11/1 price range winning 42 of 192 (21.9% SR) races for 63.9pts (+33.3% ROI) profit, from which the ones who won by 2 to 15 lengths last time out winning again on 29 of 94 (30.9% SR) occasions, generating 85pts (+90.4% ROI) profit.

Ruaraidh Hugh has won two of five starts here at Market Rasen, victorious on both his last two visits. He has won three of eight races on good ground (1211 on his last four efforts). He's 2 from 2 with today's jockey and three from four at odds of 4/1 or shorter.

In addition to that, he's 3 from 6 going right handed (won each of his last 3!) and is three from five in blinkers (41211). All of which must makeĀ Ruaraidh Hugh a real contender here and you can get on at 3/1 BOG with five or six firms.

I'm using Coral today, as I've got a free bet token to use, but you can take your pick of the bookies by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 3.55 Market Rasen

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7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 19th June 2015

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      It’s going well, for sure, but a long way from beating the record.
      I don’t like to tempt fate, because after a good run, a cold spell is never far away (and vice versa, of course!)

      We started SotD in mid-November 2011 as a bit of a whim on Matt’s part and I’m aiming to break the 300pts berriar before our 4th birthday.

      Best month to date?

      January 2012:
      11 winning bets from 30 = 36.67% S.R
      P/L: +32.82pts at BFSP/BOG
      POI = +109.4%
      Back in the days when we did it 7 days a week.

      Since taking Sundays off at the start of March 2014, the best is
      April 2015:
      10 winners from 26 = 38.46% S.R.
      P/L: +24.13pts
      POI = +92.81%

  1. Doshtosh

    WAY TO GO! You my hero!!! Mind you, Tommie O’Brien is right up there, too. What a great selection and what a beautiful ride, right up that fence, don’t give the others an inch. Yeah! God bless you, Chris, and thanks a million.

  2. Blokeshead

    Thanks again Chris. I’ve had a pretty naff Ascot, yet still I see my bank’s at roughly breakeven for the week. A lot of that is down to SotD and DD.

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