Stat of the Day, 19th July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 19th July 2012

So the winning run stopped yesterday. But it was a lovely soft landing for SotD followers as Chris nailed a 20/1 third place (which paid 9.23 Betfair place SP)!

Today, we're off to the Derby, in the…

6.10 Epsom

No, obviously not that Derby. We're a bit late for that. Rather, this is the Ladies' Derby, or a Class 4 one and a half mile handicap if you prefer.

It's a 'horses for courses' type stat today, as Epsom is most definitely a 'horses for courses' type course.

The horse in question is Shesha Bear, who has won three times at Epsom, and placed another twice, from seven starts. All three of those wins were over today's mile and a half trip, and the horse has also won three of the four times she's raced on good to soft ground. (She's won on good and soft too, so any easing or firming up won't be a problem).

Shesha Bear also has a head to head record against today's rivals of six from six. In other words, of the six times she's raced against another horse entered here, she's beaten those horses all six times.

There are a fair few dangers in the race, including Julia Feilden's The Ducking Stool, who is in fine form just now. But the one for whom conditions are best suited is Shesha Bear. 5/1 BOG is available from the Power of Paddy at time of writing, but do…

Click here for the latest odds for the 6.10 Epsom.

13 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 19th July 2012

  1. Johnny5

    Belated well done to Chris on that 20/1 third – fine selection

    Missed the place Betfair SP – massive , but still a solid ew 4/1 winner

    Welcome back to your sixth of the best hopefully Matt !!

  2. Mike

    Hi Matt, amazing run you’re on! I actually opposed Shesha Bear last time, I think she happened to run several times at Epsom when well weighted rather than being an out and out course specialist (although she may still prove to be). I still think she is weighted to the hilt so minor places at best. I back all your SOTD selections and have done again, so hope I’m wrong – I haven’t fancied most of your recent winners so what do I know! Keep up the good work.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Mike

      I take your point about the weight for Shesha, but she has a lot of things in her favour and, as a lady amateurs’ race, five pounds in unlikely to be the difference between winning and losing.

      Regarding weight being a more important factor than course form, at Epsom I disagree entirely, and generally speaking, I disagree. Quite simply, I think that small changes in weight carried have minimal impact on a horse’s prospects.

      As you say, time will tell. We’re due a loser, I know that much! 😉

      Matt

      1. Matt Bisogno Post author

        Hi Mike

        It’s no problem at all. You made a rational point for your concern, and that’s fair enough.

        As it happened, it wasn’t the weight that beat Shesha Bear tonight – of that I think we can agree!

        Best,
        Matt

  3. Mike

    Hi Matt,
    In hindsight I shouldn’t have posted the above, as I believe people should be backing all SOTD selections blindly – personally I’ve made 50+ points from the last 4 months doing just that. I shouldn’t try to put anyone off the selection, it was just that I had taken a good look at Shesha Bear the last time it ran and made a mental note to let it run a couple more times and perhaps drop down a few pounds before backing it again. Undoubtedly it does like the track – a necessity for Epsom – and is sure to run it’s race, I just feel it is not quite the right time to back it. (PS no need to post this Matt if you don’t see the need, I just wanted to explain my reasons for posting and why I wish I hadn’t – the result is irrelevant, but let’s hope it does the business). Mike

  4. Tom

    Belated congratulations Matt and Chris on a fantastic recent run with SOTD.My betting bank has had a huge boost these past couple of weeks.Regarding Shesha Bear today,it would have helped somewhat had the horse been put in the race,i can only assume that the jockey supposed she was riding something with the turn of foot of Dancing Brave.From memory i am sure the horse was ridden in this fashion on its last run.I know the horse is normally held up but the tactics have been very exaggerated these last two runs.I think we could have been celebrating another winner today with only a slightly more positive ride.Keep up the good work guys ,you deserve great credit.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Tom

      When you bet in amateur rider races, this is what can happen. I have no complaints on that score, though I do agree that a sensible ride would have seen the horse go very close indeed.

      Best,
      Matt

  5. Ian

    I have only been following SotD this week and betting for four days. Very impressed! Enjoying the site overall too. Wrt Shesha Bear, I was pleased to see her ridden out for the place. No damage done with an EW, but I actually think could have won Ian

  6. footballprogrammesraham

    Hi Matt, had an e/w saver just in case so didnt lose any betting bank, not usually that cautious at that price, must be getting old!

  7. JEMI

    This is a question, because I am a novice: I have my account with Betfair.
    For the same ODDS (which normally is), betting on “Race Card” is better or betting on “Exchange” is better?
    JEMI

  8. Johnny5

    Matt – you are spot on …it wasn’t weight that beat Shesha Bear it was a terrible far far off the pace waiting ride and it getting bumped at the top of the hill before turning into the descent into Tattenham …. But ran on amazingly well for third so fair play to the jockey for persevering that much after a shockingly poor tactical ride

    Well done tho Matt – as the run of profit continues in so much that Shesha Bear was a bog ew price

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