Stat of the Day, 19th January 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.10 Market Rasen : Squeeze Me @ 7/2 BOG last of 6 at 12/1 Pulled hard soon led, under pressure when headed approaching 2 out, weakened before last

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.45 Southwell

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Free Bounty @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

Beaten into fourth last time out over 2 miles in a Class 4 contest a fortnight ago and looking like he's struggled to see that trip out a couple of times recently. Back in my mind now, though, as he drops in both class and trip seeking to boost the already impressive record of his trainer, Phil McBride in A/W handicaps.

Since 2008, that record stands at 42 winners from 294 (14.3% SR) for 107.9pts (+36.7% ROI) at Classes 4 to 6, from which...

  • Class 5 = 13/85 (15.3%) for 24.3pts (+28.6%)
  • 4 yr olds are 11/60 (18.3%) for 73.3pts (+122.2%)
  • and here at Southwell : 4/15 (26.7%) for 16.5pts (+110%)

Another angle to look at is the performance of Phil's runners sent back out pretty quickly (but not too quickly!) after a decent finish and since 2010 with runners turned back out 4-15 days after a top 4 run , the yard is 33/132 (25% SR) for 55.6pts (+42.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 26/100 (26%) for 67.6pts (+67.6%) in handicaps
  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 22.8pts (+57%) at Class 5
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 26.9pts (+141.7%) from his 4 yr olds

Free Bounty also happens to be Phil's only runner at this track today and since 2009, when sending just the one to a track, he has 87 winners from 570 (15.3% SR) and profits of 133.1pts (+23.4%), from which...

  • handicappers are 53/347 (15.3%) for 88.4pts (+25.5%)
  • in Central/East England : 53/296 (17.9%) for 135.6pts (+45.8%)
  • at Class 5 : 33/186 (17.7%) for 39.6pts (+21.3%)
  • 6-15 days since last run : 32/160 (20%) for 84.7pts (+52.9%)
  • at Southwell : 4/19 (21.1%) for 12.5pts (+68.9%)

And finally (!), seeing as this is an amateur rides race, I consider the booking of Serena Brotherton a positive one, as there aren't many amateurs with a record like hers. In fact, there are plenty of pro's who like to have ridden 76 winners from 420 rides (18.1% SR) for profits of 95.1pts (+22.7% ROI) since 2008, and it's important to stress that's in ALL races, backing her blindly!

If we do our usual SotD analysis, we can break those 420 rides down as follows...

  • in handicaps : 75/410 (18.3%) for 101.6pts (+24.8%)
  • in Amateur jockey races : 69/372 (18.6%) for 101.5pts (+27.3%)
  • in Amateur jockeys' handicaps : 68/364 (18.7%) for 106pts (+29.1%)
  • at Class 5 : 27/132 (20.5%) for 73.3pts (+55.5%)
  • and in Class 5 Amateur jockeys' handicaps : 24/116 (20.7%) for 74.1pts (+63.9%), of which she was 5/15 (33/3% SR) for 15.9pts (+106% ROI) in 2016.

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Free Bounty @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by both Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.30pm on Wednesday, with plenty of more than adequate 9/2 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Southwell 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 19th January 2017

  1. Chud777

    Well done on results so far this year Chris. Now that was some drift today! It always baffles me how “they knew”. Horse drifts like it’s lost a leg, pulls it’s way to the front to become a sitting duck, and predictably ends up last. Strange stuff. Anyway, as for today’s, never been a fan of amateur races so may reduce stakes slightly, but Serena is one of the better ones, and the trainer stats are very positive, so may put my trust in your skills. Regards.

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