Stat of the Day, 19th January 2016

Monday's Result :

4.00 Wolverhampton : Winged Dancer @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, chased leader over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, soon headed, kept on one pace)

Tuesday's runner goes in the...

2.35 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Un Noble @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was a winner over today's trip at Southwell last time, when prevailing by 2.25 lengths 37 days ago. He was ridden by Craig Nichol that day and Craig is back in situ aiming to give Nicky Richards yet another well fancied handicap winner, as...

..since the start of 2011, Nicky's handciappers priced at evens to 5/1 are 77 from 247 (+31.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 92.5pts at an ROI of 37.4%. There is a while stack of profitable angles to be derived from that 247-runner dataset, but here are just 10 of those that are applicable today...

  • males are 76/241 (31.5% SR) for 92.5pts (+38.4% ROI)
  • those who last raced in the previous 75 days : 66/203 (32.5% ROI) for 95.1pts (+46.8% ROI)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 46/116 (39.7% SR) for 82.1pts (+70.8% ROI)
  • class 4 :42/106 (39.6% SR) for 74.5pts (+70.3% ROI)
  • chasers : 28/101 (27.7% SR) for 23.7pts (+23.5% ROI)
  • soft/heavy ground : 31/91 (34.1% SR) for 35.8pts (+39.3% ROI)
  • 2m4f/2m4.5f : 26/65 (40% SR) for 48.7pts (+78.9% ROI)
  • LTO winners : 20/64 (31.3% SR) for 19pts (+29.7% ROI)
  • here at Ayr : 13/42 (31% SR) for 19pts (+45.2% ROI)
  • ridden by Craig Nichol : 2/6 (33.33% SR) for 3.03pts (+50.5% ROI)

In addition to the above trainer based stats, Un Noble's win last time out is relevant and of interest, because since the start of 2010, Class 4 male chasers aged 6 to 9 who were LTO handicap chase winners by 2 to 10 lengths 11 to 150 days earlier are 122/480 (25.4% SR) for 81.2pts (+16.9% ROI), broken down as follows...

  • racing over 2m0.5f to 3m2f : 109/415 (26.3% SR) for 102.3pts (+24.7% ROI)
  • 21 to 45 since last win/run : 61/237 (25.7% SR) for 67pts (+28.3% ROI)
  • won by 2 to 4 lengths LTO : 46/204 (22.5% SR) for 38.2pts (+18.7% ROI)
  • 6 yr olds : 31/102 (30.4% SR) for 21.8pts (+21.4% ROI)
  • soft ground : 23/92 (25% SR) for 18.3pts (+19.9% ROI)
  • trained by Nicky Richards : 2/3 (66.7% SR) for 5.97pts (+199.1% ROI)
  • riden by Craig Nichol : 2/3 (66.7% SR) for 4.18pts (+139.3% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 6.05pm is...

A 1pt win bet onĀ Un Noble and that's at 5/2 BOG with either Coral or Hills. Once the market is fully formed, you're advised to...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 19th January 2016

  1. Doshtosh

    Lovely shout, Chris, and a really good ride, too, from Mr Nichol. Even after the final fence blunder everything always looked good, thank God and thanks both of you guys, and Un Noble, of course.

  2. bensoncb

    Chaps, I am as pleased as everyone else, but most of us got 9/4 I am sure, and the wins to selections ratio recently is not that great considering the price range of selections, so I will sing Chris’s praises when we go on a bit of a run. I started backing SotD last July and am currently slightly down. No grumbles as I enjoy the ride, but the last two months of 2015 were poor, but we are up a couple of points in 2016 and I sure that Chris would like a sequence of wins as much as the rest of us.

    As we all know, SotD is only a part of an excellent product.

    Chris Benson

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