Monday's Result :
4.00 Wolverhampton : Winged Dancer @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, chased leader over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, soon headed, kept on one pace)
Tuesday's runner goes in the...
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Un Noble @ 5/2 BOG
This 6 yr old gelding was a winner over today's trip at Southwell last time, when prevailing by 2.25 lengths 37 days ago. He was ridden by Craig Nichol that day and Craig is back in situ aiming to give Nicky Richards yet another well fancied handicap winner, as...
..since the start of 2011, Nicky's handciappers priced at evens to 5/1 are 77 from 247 (+31.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 92.5pts at an ROI of 37.4%. There is a while stack of profitable angles to be derived from that 247-runner dataset, but here are just 10 of those that are applicable today...
- males are 76/241 (31.5% SR) for 92.5pts (+38.4% ROI)
- those who last raced in the previous 75 days : 66/203 (32.5% ROI) for 95.1pts (+46.8% ROI)
- 5/6 yr olds are 46/116 (39.7% SR) for 82.1pts (+70.8% ROI)
- class 4 :42/106 (39.6% SR) for 74.5pts (+70.3% ROI)
- chasers : 28/101 (27.7% SR) for 23.7pts (+23.5% ROI)
- soft/heavy ground : 31/91 (34.1% SR) for 35.8pts (+39.3% ROI)
- 2m4f/2m4.5f : 26/65 (40% SR) for 48.7pts (+78.9% ROI)
- LTO winners : 20/64 (31.3% SR) for 19pts (+29.7% ROI)
- here at Ayr : 13/42 (31% SR) for 19pts (+45.2% ROI)
- ridden by Craig Nichol : 2/6 (33.33% SR) for 3.03pts (+50.5% ROI)
In addition to the above trainer based stats, Un Noble's win last time out is relevant and of interest, because since the start of 2010, Class 4 male chasers aged 6 to 9 who were LTO handicap chase winners by 2 to 10 lengths 11 to 150 days earlier are 122/480 (25.4% SR) for 81.2pts (+16.9% ROI), broken down as follows...
- racing over 2m0.5f to 3m2f : 109/415 (26.3% SR) for 102.3pts (+24.7% ROI)
- 21 to 45 since last win/run : 61/237 (25.7% SR) for 67pts (+28.3% ROI)
- won by 2 to 4 lengths LTO : 46/204 (22.5% SR) for 38.2pts (+18.7% ROI)
- 6 yr olds : 31/102 (30.4% SR) for 21.8pts (+21.4% ROI)
- soft ground : 23/92 (25% SR) for 18.3pts (+19.9% ROI)
- trained by Nicky Richards : 2/3 (66.7% SR) for 5.97pts (+199.1% ROI)
- riden by Craig Nichol : 2/3 (66.7% SR) for 4.18pts (+139.3% ROI)
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 6.05pm is...
A 1pt win bet on Un Noble and that's at 5/2 BOG with either Coral or Hills. Once the market is fully formed, you're advised to...
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Here is today's racecard...