Stat of the Day, 19th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 19/01/13

Stat of the Day: 19/01/13

Stat of the Day, 19th January 2013

SotD's 'binary January' is the gift that keeps on giving right now, with a second nice priced winner in a row. Advised at 6/1, Akasaka was sent off the 7/2 second favourite and won with a bit in hand. In fairness, he was a 95 rated horses running against largely much lesser rated animals, and it showed.

Saturday's programme is decimated again, and so we'll stay over in Ireland for the heavy ground card at Naas and, specifically, the...

1.35 Naas

It's a serious longshot poke today, and of course, more likely to be nowhere than somewhere. But, emboldened by a couple of recent winners - and mindful that faint heart never won fair maiden (although discretion is the better part of valour!) - I'm tilting at the biggest price I've ever put up on here.

The horse in question is Maller Tree, in the Grade 3  hurdle. This fellow was tailed off last time over three miles, but that's not his true running, and he palpably didn't stay that day.

In thirteen runs in non-handicap company, Maller Tree has been in the bookie places on ten occasions. That's 71% of the time. True, here there are only two places to aim at, and there is an odds on jolly and a well backed second choice in Solwhit and So Young respectively.

But both of those have something to prove: Solwhit is a seconditis horse, which might bounce after his first run in around two years; and So Young is a two miler who has gotten away with further only in a very weak maiden hurdle and a three runner dawdle. (He might get away with it again here, but he's no price to be supporting that possibility).

Third choice in the market is Whatuthink, a  horse well suited by conditions but one which will try to make all. When he last did that against Maller Tree, the selection beat him by 43 lengths! Now that's not Whatuthink's running in fairness, but there remains a reasonable chance that Maller Tree can beat him again.

With Whatuthink and Imperial Shabra likely to take each other on early, and So Young normally prominent too, there could well be some throat-cutting amongst them this afternoon. If that scenario was to unfold, then the... 50/1!!!... about Maller Tree looks tempting.

It obviously won't last, but there's plenty of 33/1 around too, and that's fair enough. Each way at 50's BOG with bet365 the call, but do...

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.35 Naas

p.s. I was tempted by Red Somerset in the 2.20 Kempton, whose recent record (ten places from eleven starts for today's rider) and price - 16/1 - is fair enough for a small each way tickle.

 

 

 

13 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 19th January 2013

  1. Jim

    Hi Matt,

    maybe the eejit made a mistake……..

    Anyhow, I’m on at 50/1 and also a little ew double with Red Somerset at 14/1

    You never know …and anyhow, for small stakes it’s worth a punt.

    Cheers

    Jim

  2. Johnny5

    Matt

    Don’t let it get to you – it’s either A-a mistake or B-a loser who doesn’t understand what you are doing for the punting community on this site

    They arnt worth your time typing

    Your current 5/5 , last years results and general geeeez site is test amount to 10/10 on this site

    Good to see its recovered to nearly 9/10

    You’re in great form fella and can’t believe the 50/1 that’s still available at 365 will keep your run going but you make a great case for it and really hope it does make for a magic 6/6 for you and show that potential 1/10 poster !

    Good luck Matt and don’t let the clown get u down

  3. Mark J

    Hi Matt, Mark J here (not to be confused by the ‘other’ Mark you seems to be plaguing the site at the moment!) What a fantastic run you’re having and very exciting to have a long-priced shot today! Keep up the great work and don’t be deterred by the petty jealousies of others. Well done mate and fingers crossed for today!

  4. Martyn Colebrook

    Keep up the excellent work. It’s more than appreciated by all who read the blog, post here and follow the tips (the idiots excepted, of course). I’m crediting this site with changing the way I understood betting and the success I have had in the last few months. Thanks again.

  5. Chris Worrall Post author

    Looking through the site logs, I think the guy who voted 1/10 doesn’t actually understand the points system. Either that, or he’s very hard to please. He has voted on 40 different posts and awarded every single one of them 1/10.

  6. Tom

    Hi Matt, there are morons in all walks of life unfortunately. This seems to have been made worse by the internet which gives them anonymity to hide behind. 5 winners in a row speaks for itself. Today’s selection, win, lose or draw, is well thought out and certainly merits a small interest!

  7. Ian L

    1/10 man is definitely an eejit! However, he is an early eejit, I went through a phase a few months ago when I logged on and voted 10 whatever as soon as I got up just to spite him, sometimes I was first and sometimes he was, but then I realised I was getting sucked in to his stupidity and stopped bothering! Let him get on with it I say. I have allowed myself the time to write about him purely to have something to do whilst I wait for today’s race to start! Good luck all.

      1. Paul

        Hi Matt,

        I’m just trying to highlight, with nonsense humour, that initiating any discussion about the rankings on this site are ultimately futile – and probably encourage the eejits to continue. Ignore them, I say!

        Incidentally, when most of the racing is abandoned, we should all take a moment to spare a thought for the poor bookies who must really feel it where it hurts at times like these. Today, Ladbrokes offered me a £10 free matched bet if I punted £10 on two races at Meydan. I did think about it.

        Paul

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