Stat of the Day, 19th February 2016

Thursday's Result :

3.40 Kelso: Takingrisks @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn due to bad scope)

Friday's runner goes in the...

2.20 Lingfield:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chelwood Gate @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

I'm going to take a fairly simple approach here and look at the trainer and then the horse in respect of the race as a whole.

Trainer Patrick Chamings' runners here since the start of 2012 sent off at odds of 5/1 and shorter have won 21 of 45 races (46.7% SR) for 39.2pt profit at an ROI of 87.1%. These are clearly above the norm, but interestingly the following criteria prevalent today make a pretty compelling case, as those 45 runners are...

  • 20/38 (52.6% SR) for 39.9pts (+104.9% ROI) when carrying 8-10 to 9-10
  • 14/35 (40% SR) for 23.8pts (+68.1% ROI) in handicaps
  • 13/26 (50% SR) for 31.3pts (+120.3% ROI) when rated (OR) 67 and higher
  • 14/23 (60.9% SR) for 38.5pts (167.4% ROI) racing 11 to 30 days after their last run
  • 11/23 (47.8% SR) for 23.4pts (+101.6% ROI) in Class 5 events

As for Chelwood Gate, a cursory glance at his 3/26 career record is a little off-putting and there's not much reassutrance coming from his 2 from 18 A/W return either, but (and there's always a but! 😀 ), that 2/18 on the A/W is actually 2 from 7 in Lingfield A/W handicaps, all wearing a visor and only our of the first three home on one occasion, so it's fair to say he does his best work here.

In terms of today's contest, both those two victories give the following data...

  • 2/6 over this 1m course and distance and 2/6 at Class 5
  • 2/5 at odds of 4/1 and shorter, 2/5 at OR of 69-75
  • 2/4 in fields of 7-9 runners and 2/4 when running 2 to 4 weeks after his last run
  • 2/3 in Feb/March
  • 2 from 2 under George Baker

And today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Chelwood Gate at 7/2 BOG with Bet365, who are best priced at present (6.10pm). To see if that's still the case...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.