Thursday's Result :
3.40 Kelso: Takingrisks @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn due to bad scope)
Friday's runner goes in the...
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Chelwood Gate @ 7/2 BOG
I'm going to take a fairly simple approach here and look at the trainer and then the horse in respect of the race as a whole.
Trainer Patrick Chamings' runners here since the start of 2012 sent off at odds of 5/1 and shorter have won 21 of 45 races (46.7% SR) for 39.2pt profit at an ROI of 87.1%. These are clearly above the norm, but interestingly the following criteria prevalent today make a pretty compelling case, as those 45 runners are...
- 20/38 (52.6% SR) for 39.9pts (+104.9% ROI) when carrying 8-10 to 9-10
- 14/35 (40% SR) for 23.8pts (+68.1% ROI) in handicaps
- 13/26 (50% SR) for 31.3pts (+120.3% ROI) when rated (OR) 67 and higher
- 14/23 (60.9% SR) for 38.5pts (167.4% ROI) racing 11 to 30 days after their last run
- 11/23 (47.8% SR) for 23.4pts (+101.6% ROI) in Class 5 events
As for Chelwood Gate, a cursory glance at his 3/26 career record is a little off-putting and there's not much reassutrance coming from his 2 from 18 A/W return either, but (and there's always a but! 😀 ), that 2/18 on the A/W is actually 2 from 7 in Lingfield A/W handicaps, all wearing a visor and only our of the first three home on one occasion, so it's fair to say he does his best work here.
In terms of today's contest, both those two victories give the following data...
- 2/6 over this 1m course and distance and 2/6 at Class 5
- 2/5 at odds of 4/1 and shorter, 2/5 at OR of 69-75
- 2/4 in fields of 7-9 runners and 2/4 when running 2 to 4 weeks after his last run
- 2/3 in Feb/March
- 2 from 2 under George Baker
And today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Chelwood Gate at 7/2 BOG with Bet365, who are best priced at present (6.10pm). To see if that's still the case...
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