Stat of the Day, 19th April 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 19th April 2014

Wow! a 7/1 winner yesterday will certainly have lifted spirits and profit levels yesterday. We've often said that SotD seems to follow a cyclical pattern on the route to long-term success and so this week has proved the case.

We've snapped a long losing run with back to back winners yielding 11.5pts and Friday's runner Bilimbi was a comfortable winner in the end. He's bred to get further than a mile, so he could be one to look out for this season.

I had a couple of family things to deal with this morning (nothing serious), so I'm a little late to press tonight, but hey, it's the Easter Weekend! Let's attempt to land the hat-trick in the...

4.10 Carlisle:

Where I've just taken 5/2 BOG with SkyBet about Dianne Sayer's only runner of the day, Baileys Concerto, who aims to follow up from his win at Hexham 19 days ago. Many people like to back horses when they're a trainers sole runner on the day, but the reasons behind today's pick are...

1. Backing all Dianne Sayer's NH Handicap runners is profitable!

In 2011/14 alone, she has saddled up 69 winners from 503 runners (13.72% Stirke rate) for a profit of some 198.07pts (+39.38% ROI) and when we focus more on the kind of odds we tend to play at for SotD purposes: 40 winners from 148 between evens and 6/1. 40/148 is a 27% strike rate and the resultant 65.94pts propfit is equivalent to 44.55% of stakes. Therefore, we can be confident about long-term profits if we back all her runners.

2. Mrs Sayer also has a good record when she turns her chasers back out quickly after a good run.

Over the last four years, she has sent out 52 handicap chasers to run again within three weeks of a top 4 finish last time out. Fifteen of those horses have gone on to win for a strike rate of 28.85% and the profits returned are excellent at 59.3pt or 97.2% of stakes.

Baileys Concerto won at hexham 14 days ago and therefore not only is he Dianne's only chance of prize money today, he also satisfies both stats and that will do for me!

So, the call is a 1pt win bet on Baileys Concerto at 5/2 BOG with SkyBet and you can see the whole market if you just... here for the latest betting on the 4.10 Carlisle

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10 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 19th April 2014

  1. grinder

    Hello Chris.Looking at Diane Sayers stats at Carlisle shows a loss [using trainer stats on this site] but you have taken all her NH handicap runners which shows a hefty profit.Can this be done using any facility on here please.Thanks.

  2. Chris Worrall Post author

    10p in the pound deduction today, guys.
    Paid out at 9/4 BOG, still considerably better than the 7/4 SP.

    Have a great Easter and I’ll see you all on Monday.


  3. Doshtosh

    I am a, comparatively, new follower/member and right now I feel like a lump! The results were so awful, for a while, I decided to up the ante (bad, bad, move) and when that failed, I threw the towel in, and, decided to go it alone. I did make a few bob, right enough, but missed the three recent winners and that makes me feel ill! Difficult to know how to get it right. I’m thinking, may be, leave it and return at the start of next month.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi John

      Really sorry to hear about that. It does happen, of course, but always horrible when you’re behind the curve like that.

      Suggestion is sensible bank – say 40 to 50 points – and bet to a fixed stake, or a percentage of bank if you prefer to work on a progressive basis.

      Hope that makes sense, and hope you catch Chris’ next profit wave.

      Best Regards,

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Martyn,

      Thanks for the kind words and as for “the long game”, that’s the tune we’ve been playing for a while! 😀

      All the best,

  4. Rambler

    Just going on Doshtosh’s point – the profit I’ve made in the last three days amounts to 10 points in anyones money (whether it’s £20 a point or 20p). Therefore SotD can have its worst run (since I joined the following) and I’ll still be in profit.

    I know this may seem a little muddled but as MColebrook said “its about the long game” with a sufficient bank – stats show that a reasonable profit will be made by using SotD.

  5. jethro

    Further to the comment from Doshtosh and Matt’s response above, I have developed a good little staking plan using SotD which I have run since the end of Nov 2013. The secret is not to be greedy…
    I invest with BOG bookies to make £10 profit every time a winner is selected; whether it is the first in a new series of bets, or the 17th bet after 16 losses! I.e. Say the first selection is at 4/1 odds I bet £2.50 to win to get my stake back plus the £10 profit – £12.50. If the horse loses, say the following day’s selection is at 2/1 odds, I will invest £6.25 to win to recoup my previous days stake along with the £10 profit. If that loses, the following day depending on the horses odds, I will invest accordingly to get back £18.75; which will include the previous two days stakes plus the £10 profit. And so on and so on until there is a winner, at which time I start again.
    By doing this, I am up over £400 since the end of Nov last year! Not a huge profit, but it will pay for a nice holiday each year hopefully…
    The worst set of results came between the 28 Jan and the 13 Feb 2014, where a winner was not selected until the 17th bet in a run. However there were two each-way selections during that time which placed; this helped to keep the ongoing stakes down and a starting bank of £300 would have seen you through. On this particular run where success was achieved through Knocklayde Express on the 13 Feb, the horse drifted in the market after I placed the bet which given the long losing series was around £80 to win. This meant I made £90 from that particular series of bets before starting again! Winning horses that drift are great news when using this plan!
    Hope this gives you a few ideas to consider anyway. So far so good for me…

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      The current debate is certainly both interesting and food for thought.
      We run at around a 28% strike rate overall, so if you’re “only” expecting 2 winners every 7 days or 8 per month, it stands to reason that you could quite feasibly have long losing runs.
      I could hit 8 winners on the bounce at the start of May and then have no winners until the last 8 selections in June. I’d still hit that 28% strike rate and we’d all still make money at level stakes, but there would be a run of over 30 losing bets.
      The point I’m making, is that I agree with those taking a longer view. I have good winning runs and I have losing runs, we don’t shy away from that and anyone following any “tipping” service can get unlucky by only backing a sample of the selections and likewise, somebody who signed up on Thursday is now looking at a 3/3 record and 13.75pts profit.

      Anyway, enjoy your Easter, guys and I’ll be back (with more winners, hopefully!) on Monday.

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