Stat of the Day, 18th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2014

I don't know what to make of Eleusis' run at Yarmouth on Wednesday. I don't think she ran badly, but I don't think she ran well either. She fell out of the stalls and conceded a couple of lengths at the start, but hat didn't affect the result, as she was soon on terms.

She ran green at times and ran in patches, but just when I thought she was going to challenge, nothing happened and she was one-paced. I shan't be rushing to back her again, until she's had another decent run under her belt.

She was sent off at 9/2, a little shorter than the 5.63/1 ticket I held (15/2 less 25p rule 4!), so as I expected, the value was there, if not the win. Value betting brings long-term profits, but the fact is that I'm 0/3 for the week and still awaiting that one winner which will guarantee the month is profitable.

My quest for that winner now leads me to the...

4.00 Pontefract:

And what looks to be an overpriced 9/1 BOG horse in the shape of George Baker's Ishiamber, who comes here in great form. This 4yr old filly only made her debut in January this year, but in nine starts to date she has finished 343111191 and has won on both A/W and turf and was a winner at Kempton last time out, 22 days ago.

George Baker's yard is in good form with 11 winners from 51 runners in the last month and in the last couple of seasons, he has been profitable to back blindly (not that we'd ever advocate such an action 😀 ).

On the flat over the last two seasons, his horses have won 44 of 353 races, a 12.5% strike rate yielding 142.9pts profit at an ROI of 40.6%. In handicap races alone, that record improves somewhat to 33 winners from 243 (13.6% SR) for 184.6pts (+76.3% ROI).

Ishiamber steps up in class today...

George Baker's horses who have stepped up in class and were priced below 10/1 have won 11 of 34 (32.4% SR) races since 2011 and have generated level stakes profits of 47.9pts (+145.1% ROI) in the process.

She also drops down a furlong in trip...

This too can be seen as a positive, as George's sub-10/1 runners dropping in trip by up to 1.5 furlongs since 2010 have won 15 of 71 races (21.1% SR) and have also produced profits of 24.6pts (+34.6% ROI) along the way.

It's a (very!) small sample size, but...those dropping in trip whilst stepping up in class are 3/5 (60% SR) for 15.8pts (+316% ROI)

Ishiamber is George's only runner of the day...

...and therefore, presumably his priority, with all the day's eggs in the one basket. However, in the last four seasons when a runner in a flat handicap has been his sole entrant of the day, he has tasted success on 24 of 132 (18.2% SR) occasions and has rewarded his followers with level stakes profits of 101.3pts at an ROI of 76.8%. There are also some trends that emerge from this 24/132 stat too...

Those that last ran between 11 and 30 days ago (ie had a short rest, but not allowed to get rusty) have won 15 of 61 (24.6% SR) for 95.2pts (+156.1% ROI).
Those who won last time out are 7/22 (31.8% SR ) for 40.5pts (+183.9% ROI)...
...whilst those, like Ishiamber who were winners last time out between 11 and 30 days ago are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 46.1pts (+354.4% ROI) profit.

Kieren Fallon is on board today and Kieran has a decent record here at Ponty, having ridden 6 winners from 29  (20.7% SR) in the last three seasons on this track and could well be the ideal partner in what might be a tight finish in this one.

One last tricky issue to deal with is my staking for this one. I fully expected to be backing her at around 11/2 to 6/1 and I was most pleasantly surprised to see her out at 9/1 with a couple firms at 7.00pm on Wednesday evening, I've thought about it and although I think she has a good chance here, the safe/prudent option is actually an E/W bet at such a long price.

I'm placing a 0.5pt E/W bet on Ishiamber at 9/1 BOG with Coral in the knowledge that a win will still pay me out at 5.4pts profit, just 0.1pt less than I was expecting, but with the insurance of the place bet. Feel free to go win only, f you like, of course and also check BetVictor for matching the same odds. 5/1 to 7/1 seems to be the norm elsewhere, as can be seen if you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.00 Pontefract

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 18th September 2014

  1. Essexboy

    Chris forgive me in advance but i think your chasing shadows that BIG WINNER. Shorten the target price to about 5/ 2 -3/1 these last few have been longshots and they will start win again

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      That’ll be why you reckon the effort I put into the piece was only worth 3/10.
      You are, of course, entitled to your opinion even if it’s as far off the mark as it could be.

      We’re at the scrag end of the flat season, the jumps race (if any) is poor and it’s difficult to continuously make a profit, yet I keep on doing it.
      I picked a horse today that was 9/1 and I went E/W. I thought it was actually an 11/2 to 6/1 shot and that I was getting a decent price. Moreover, there was a stack of stats to support the selection, just like every selection I put up.

      I don’t tilt at windmills, nor do I chase big winners, my record speaks for itself.
      How many points up am I this month so far? Why do I need a big winner?
      There simply isn’t much on offer from a stats betting point of view.

      My 9/1 shot was 4th today, we missed a payout by a place. Would you prefer a 5/2 runner-up? They both return the same amounts.
      If I had a 3/1 horse with as much statistical data as today’s runner, I’d have gone with it.
      Past history shows I like to work in the 3/1 range, but it’s not always possible.

      The problem with providing a daily service to a paying audience is that there’s a lot of short-term analysis done and guesswork by people who really don’t have a clue how I operate.

      Chris

      PS If you think I’ve got my back up, you’re dead right.

  2. jethro

    Another day tomorrow Chris and rest assured that us faithful are well aware that things will turn around in due course! You just stick to your overall game plan I say and keep up the great work…

  3. Fatboyjim

    Chris, calm down mate, we all love you! To give you an idea of how I am doing following SotD, after following for a while in haphazard fashion I decided to take a more structured approach back in April. Using the 29% historic strike rate as a guide I decided to go with 2% rolling bank! and after some ups and downs I am at just about that strike rate.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I’m not after praise or adulation, Jim.
      I just (occasionally!) get a touch wound up by people assuming things about the way I operate rather than asking for clarification.

      I’m really pleased that it’s working for you, like it works for many of us.

      Chris

  4. Fatboyjim

    Sorry, to continue my bank growth after 153 bets is 276% and the ROI is 37%, truly amazing stats so any down spells should be taken for what they are. Keep up the good work as this service is the best I have ever known.

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