Stat of the Day, 18th September 2012

Stat of the Day 18/09

Stat of the Day 18/09

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2012

Majestic Breeze so nearly continued our winning run yesterday, but was collared late in the piece and we had to settle for the runner-up position. We, of course, did manage to beat the market though, as we took 11/2 about what was eventually an 11/4 favourite, so the value was there, if not the win!

Value is, of course, a subjective issue and has played a role in my selection today. Without making excuses before the event, today's racing looks dire and there are few relevant (and strong enough!) stats to work off for today's meetings. By far, the strongest statistical bet is Willie Wag Tail, who I fully expect to win the 5.00 at Yarmouth, but was 6/4 overnight and is currently 5/4 and will possibly go off at odds on and I'm not quite sure he's worth a bet at those odds.

This meant that I've had quite a long and fairly fruitless search for a selection for today and it was almost our first "No Bet" day, but I think I've found a tentative E/W selection in the...

5.30 Yarmouth

None of the stats for Yarmouth are particularly strong, but a combination of factors has led me to an E/W selection here in this Class 4 handicap over a mile and three-quarters.

The trainer is James Eustace who has a decent 40% place strike rate in handicaps here at Yarmouth and his sole entrant today is our selection: Suzi's A Class Act.

This horse is a course and distance winner and has shown remarkable consistency in recent times, her record in the last year reads 3332434113 and she's 32311 over today's trip. She ran well at Chester last time out, but probably didn't get the full two miles that and a drop back 2 furlongs should surely help.

Our jockey today is young and talented Adam Beschizza: a friend of Geegeez and someone who also knows his way around the Yarmouth track, holding a 33% place strike rate in these handicap events and Adam himself is 113 on today's mount.

As I said, none of the individual stats are probably strong enough to warrant an SotD selection, but when taken together, the 15/2 BOG generally on offer looks a decent E/W opportunity, so that's the play for today, but you should...

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.30 Yarmouth.

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 18th September 2012

  1. Chris

    Morning Chris, just a small point, but Willie Wag Tail runs in 17.00 at Yarmouth – I only mention as it initially reads as if the selected Stat of the Day was being put up against the not selected Stat of the Day. See Willie Wag Tail now Evens – out of interest, at what price would it have been a bet? I know my question is subjective and if I had time, I should be making up my own book on the race, just interested in your thoughts.

    Keep up the good work.

    Cheers, Chris

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Chris,

      It was just a typo this morning, sorry! WWT does indeed run in the 5.00 and NOT against our SotD horse.
      Willie Wag Tail was 13/8 last night and I thought it was too short then to be honest. It should win, but the race is nowhere near a penalty kick. I would have wanted somewhere in the region of 2/1 or upwards to be honest. In fact, the Sporting Life tissue was 3/1, whilst both Timeform and Racing Post had it at 15/8, so to achieve any perceived “value” (that dreaded word again!), I’d want 2/1. However, it’s a case of each to their own and at 10/11 (which it is now), it’d be one I’d consider laying. I see Maria’s Choice as a more attractive prospect at 9/2.

      Chris

  2. Chris

    Thanks Chris, I will be sticking with SOTD and leaving Yarmouth 5.00 well alone – well backed favourite, 3 of the bigger yards with entries & only 6 runners so no e/w play really. fingers crossed for Suzi’s A Class Act.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      FWIW, Both pacemakers are now out of 5.00 Yarmouth. Willie Wag Tail is a hold up horse, who may not have things his own way here, and is probably a lay now at around 5/6. Stature 16s over-priced, as is Assizes at 8’s. One or other may make all.

      Matt

  3. Chris

    Hi Matt, out of interest, how much time do you need to spend to get to the level of knowledge you have on the horses – I have always loved the horses since watching Sharastani beat Dancing Brave in the ’86 Derby, but always been a part time punter (and follower). Would love to know more, just sense the time investment would be too great for me right now.

    Cheers, Chris

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Much of it is about working smarter not harder, Chris.

      I’m writing something on the subject right now, though it will take a while to finish.

      Stay tuned!
      Matt

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