Stat of the Day, 18th October 2017

Tuesday's Result :

4.30 Leicester : Dream of Delphi @ 5/1 BOG Last of 9 at 5/1 : Missed break, slowly into stride, held up in rear, never dangerous...

Wednesday's selection goes in the...

5.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

So Celebre @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A Class 5, 3yo+ A/W handicap over 1m4f...

...with a 4 yr old gelding who was pipped late on last time out, finishing as a runner-up over this trip and at this grade just five days, beaten by a mere short head.

His trainer Ian Williams has got his horses running well right now and over the last 30 days, the yard is 13 from 50 (26% SR) for profits of 11.8pts at an ROI of 23.6%, including of relevance today...

  • handicappers at 11/44 (25%) for 14pts (+31.8%)
  • those priced at 7/1 and shorter are 13/33 (39.4%) for 28.8pts (+87.3%)
  • at Classes 4 & 5 : 8/23 (34.8%) for 18.25pts (+79.3%)
  • on the All-Weather : 5/18 (27.8%) for 3.3pts (+18.3%)
  • those running with less than 3 weeks rest : 10/16 (62.5%) for 22.9pts (+143.1%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 4/13 (30.8%) for 3.6pts (+27.5%)

Now, some of you might think it's a bit flimsy for me to base a pick for SotD upon a sample size of 50 runners and you might be right, so would 1073 runners be a more reliable pool to dive into?

We know that Ian Williams has done well recently with runners turned around fairly quickly, but more generally I do like to back quick returners on the A/W but as you'd expect, I have some parameters that need to be applied before placing the bets.

My criteria for my A/W quick returners are (and they look far more complicated in print than they are in reality!) as follows...

...AW handicaps / 5 to 16 runners / March to November / Aged 2 to 7 / Running at trips within 1f of last run / Beaten by less than 5 lengths LTO / ran in last 5 days...

And this has produced the afore-mentioned 1073 qualifiers since the start of March 2008, so whilst that seems plenty, it's really only just over 100 per year or 10 per month. And if you'd backed all 1073 qualifiers, you'd have found yourself 207 winners at a healthy strike rate of 19.3% : not bad from blindly backing them!

And if you'd stuck £20 on each of them, you'd be ahead of the bookies by almost £5,000 - £4962 to be more precise at an attractive ROI of some 23.1%. Now, of course, some of you will want fewer bets and with such a large dataset, there are going to be lots of profitable angles you could take, but I'm only going to give you a dozen!

  1. In fields of 6-14 runners : 202/1051 (19.2%) for 243.6pts (+23.2%)
  2. On Polytrack : 157/827 (19%) for 237.2pts (+28.7%)
  3. At odds of 13/8 to 8/1 : 176/787 (22.4%) for 245.6pts (+31.2%)
  4. Males are 148/761 (19.5%) for 134.2pts (+17.6%)
  5. At the same class as LTO : 133/642 (20.7%) for 208.1pts (+32.4%)
  6. At the same distance as LTO : 108/541 (20%) for 139.4pts (+25.8%)
  7. LTO runners-up are 81/324 (25%) for 62.5pts (+19.3%)
  8. 4 yr olds are 51/279 (18.3%) for 40.6pts (+14.6%)
  9. At Class 5 : 56/273 (20.5%) for 37.5pts (+13.7%)
  10. In October : 41/172 (23.8%) for 100.8pts (+58.6%)
  11. Here at Lingfield : 33/171 (19.3%) for 38.2pts (+22.3%)
  12. And those beaten by a head or less LTO are 17/44 (38.6%) for 33.8pts (+76.7%)

...but first... a 1pt win bet on So Celebre @ 10/3 BOG, which was available from Bet365, Betfair & SunBets at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

8 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 18th October 2017

  1. Paul Kendall

    Thank you Chris, interesting piece. You and the rest of the Geegeez team always manage to get across what can be quite complex stuff in an easy to read and understandable way.
    Also I note that Steven has chosen the same card for his Race of the Day and the arguments there for his selection are as compelling as yours, so there’s something to learn from that.
    Just thought I’d say….
    Paul

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Thanks, Paul.
      As you’ll notice, Steve and I often attack a race from different angles and occasionally we end up with the same race and then often the same horse.
      We arrive at our conclusions independently and I find it interesting to see the alternative approach.

      I’ve had a saver bet on Steve’s pick and to neglect the possible reverse forecast would be rude!

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