Stat of the Day, 18th November 2016

Thursday's Result :

4.40 Chelmsford : Geraldine @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, edging left when switched right 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 3rd towards finish, beaten by a length.)

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.20 Ascot

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Minella Daddy @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

Finishes of 128221 in his last six races suggest he is prime form as a former Gr 3 hurdler rated 132 in that sphere, who has now ran twice in chase contests finishing as a runner-up and then winning in this grade over this trip at Ffos Las almost five weeks ago.

He was 6 lengths clear of the highly rated (OR 140 over hurdles) Whataknight that day and the latter has also gone on to win since.  Peter Bowen's Minella Daddy hasn't ran on good to soft ground before but has won (and placed) on both Good and Soft, so the going really shouldn't hold too many fears here.

To date, he is...

  • 2 from 6 (312821) under Sean Bowen
  • 2 from 4 (1221) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 2 from 3 (121) at 2m 7.5f / 3m
  • 1 from 1 at Class 3
  • 1 from 1 in blinkers

...all of which suggests he'll enjoy today's race conditions as the team attempt to improve upon the family record in these type of contests, with the Peter / Sean combination already tasting success 22 times from 81 (27.2% SR) handicap chases with horses priced at Evens to 6/1 with these runners producing level stakes profits of 17.6pts (+21.8% ROI).

Of those 81 runners, those racing over trips of 2m 5f to 3m inclusive are 15/40 (37.5%) for 28.1pts (+70.3%) and Class 3 runners are 8 from 25 (32%) for 8.75pts (+35%) with those racing in Class 3 contests over 2m 5f to 3m winning 5 of 11 (54.5%) for 11.1pts (+100.9%)

And before i sign off, just a quick nod in the direction of Peter Bowen and his recent record with LTO winners, as in NH contests since the start of 2015, those runners are 22/78 (28.2% SR) for 37.9pts (+48.6% ROI) including of relevance here...

  • 16/55 (29.1%) for 32.2pts (+58.5%) in handicaps
  • 9/30 (30%) for 25.9pts (+86.4%) in chases
  • and 9 from 28 (32.1%) for 27.9pts (+99.75%) in handicap chases

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Minella Daddy at 9/2 BOG with any of BetVictor, Coral and/or SKyBet who led the way at 5.40pm on Thursday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

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