Stat of the Day, 18th November 2014
Yesterday was SotD's 3rd birthday and it was nice to mark the occasion with a 5/1 BOG winner that beat the book by being sent off at 7/2.
Ryan Tate seized the initiative and made all aboard Mikandy, controlling the race from the front, enabling him to be the first to kick for home. He asked his mount to go and win he win coming around the final bend and she quickly opened up a good three to four lengths lead and from that point, she never looked like losing.
She eventually scored by two lengths ahead of a well strung-out field. We now aim to start our 4th year with another winner, so we're off chasing in South Yorkshire for the...
Where Michael Easterby's Shadows Lengthen looks overpriced at 5/1 BOG. I don't normally put consecutive 5/1 shots up for SotD, but like Mikandy, I'd expect this one to shorten in the market, despite him carrying top weight at 11-12 today.
There's a school of thought that horses at the top end of the weights struggle in testing conditions such as we're encountering at present, but I've some stats that say otherwise. In, fact I back quite a few runners from the top of the racecard over the winter, providing, of course, they fulfill certain criteria. 😀
So what am I looking for?
Winter (Nov to April) handicap chasers carrying between 11-5 & 11-12 inclusive and in the top 4 in the weights on ground officially described as soft, soft to heavy or heavy. They also need to be fit and active with a run inside the last 30 days and at least 3 runs in the last 3 months. Horses fitting this bill and sent off in the 5/2 to 8/1 odds range (ie a rough approximation of SotD preferred odds) have won 69 races from 251 attempts (27.5% SR) since the start of November 2008.
These 69 winners have, to date, generated 78.1pts profit at an ROI of 31.1% and we can further refine the 251 original qualifiers down as follows...
Those carrying top weight are 32/118 (27.1% SR) for 47.1pts (+39.9% ROI) profit, whilst those top weighted runners carrying 11-12 are 20/72 (27.8% SR) for 35.5pts (+49.4% ROI).
The record of those 118 top-weighted runners on soft ground is 17/48 (35.4% SR) for 39.7pts (+82.6% ROI), of which there were 6 winners from 15 (40% SR) running at trips of 2m3f to 2m5f.
Shadows Lengthen now seeks a 4th win in 7 starts...
...after winning last time out to end a run of three unplaced efforts. Like Mikandy yesterday, he's turned out pretty quickly (18 days) to capitalise on his return to form after returning to the winners' enclosure with a good 7 length victory at Wetherby.
Handicap chasers who were turned out within 30 days of a victory that was preceded by three (or more!) unplaced efforts have made it back to back successes on 84 of the 418 (20.1 %SR) occasions that they have been sent off in the 15/8 to 14/1 price range since the start of 2011. These back to back wins from the back to form horses have produced level stakes profits of 75.4pts at an ROI of 18% with a record of 5/8 here at Doncaster yielding and exceptional 38.7pts at Betfair SP.
Jockey Brian Harding is in good touch too..
...having ridden 14 winners from 68 (20.6% SR) in the last month and a £10 stake on each of those runners would have netted you £317 profit, which equates to a 46.6% return on your money. And that's from backing all his rides. If you ignored those priced at 12/1 or bigger, you'd only miss one winner, but discard 24 losing bets, leaving you with a 13/43 (30.2% SR) record and 28pts (+65% ROI) profit. Sometimes less is more!
Shadows Lengthen is raised 8lbs for that latest win, but the manner of the victory suggests the hike might not be enough to stop him. There's more to that win that at first meets the eye. Firstly, it was a Listed contest, so this Class 3 event is a marked drop in class for him today and the 7L margin of victory doesn't tell you that he was eased right down from quite a way out, once the race was won. He could easily have won by much further.
I'm not convinced that Shadows Lengthen has stopped winning and even the 3 unplaced runs in between the 3 victories (110401) can be excused, I suppose. 2 came fairly close together as tired runs at the end of last season, whilst the last effort was his reappearance after 159 days and he probably needed the run. Overall he's 5/13 in chases, he's 2/4 here at Doncaster and he has proven form in the mud. He certainly gets the trip, having won five times from twelve at 2m3f to 2m5f and Brian Harding is 1/1 on his back.
Shadows Lengthen does all his best running in these winter months and I expect him to go well again today. I've backed him at 5/1 BOG with Paddy Power (using up a free bet or two!), but the price is widely available. I'd advise you get on at that price as I'm pretty confident he'll be sent off shorter. To see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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