Stat of the Day, 18th November 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th November 2012

Firstly, a warm welcome to all new Stat of the Day followers, especially those who our friends at More Money Review invited. I hope you enjoy this daily feature, and please remember that it's not magic, and we have more losers than winners. The trick, of course, is to ensure that the winners more than pay for the losers, something we've managed quite successfully since starting exactly a year again.

Indeed, it was SotD's first birthday yesterday and, unfortunately, William Buick hadn't bought us a card. The normally excellent jockey was asleep in the stalls and forgot to remove the hood from Resplendent Alpha. Here's the Sporting Life result comment:

Rider removed blind late, slowly away in rear, some late headway on outer final furlong

Hmm. In fact, having lost eight lengths at the start, he was beaten less than five at the finish. We don't generally make excuses here at SotD, but that has to be marked down as unlucky.

Onwards, and today we're looking at the Southern National, a three and a half mile handicap chase around the only remaining figure of eight jumps course in Britain. It's the...

2.05 Fontwell

As some of you will know, I recently gave away a free system which focused on a handful of trainers who excel with handicap runners. One of the five in that manual was David Bridgwater. 'Bridgy' is having an excellent year, and his fancied handicappers (priced 12/1 or shorter) have won 13 of 47 starts for a profit of 28.84 points at Betfair SP in 2012.

Bridgwater's record at Fontwell is pretty good too: he's won seven of the fifteen handicaps in which he's had a runner priced 12/1 or shorter... and four of the six he's entered this year! That's worth a profit of twenty points, and one of the key elements of that healthy balance sheet is today's selection, Double Chocolate.

Double Chocolate is a bit of a Fontwell specialisit. Indeed, of the four races he's won, three have been on this quirky 'horses for courses' track. And all four of his wins have been within a furlong of the extreme three and a half mile trip. In other words, he likes it here. He's won three times on good ground and once on soft, so today's good to soft should be fine too.

His recent form of 1P7R1312218 becomes 1R11 when distilled to Fontwell only. The 'R' was a 'ran out', when Double Choc bucked and kicked his way to the first and swerved the fence. Obviously not an attractive trait, but that seemed to be a one off, and he's won his other three starts here.

This represents a small step up in class, from Class 4 to Class 3, but he's earned that by consistently winning in that lower grade (all four wins in Class 4).

Double Chocolate sneaks in here off almost bottom weight, and looks to have everything in his favour for a big run. It's a competitive race, as befits prize money of £11,000, and at the 9/1 available an each way bet is the suggestion.

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.05 Fontwell

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 18th November 2012

  1. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Happy Birthday to SotD – my “the find” on the internet this year. Great service and interaction, second to none. Long may you continue – great freebie’s also (5 x Trainers to Follow).
    Many thanks for an enjoyable year !!!

  2. Johnny5

    Agree with you on all counts Bob !

    Happy belated birthday SotD – here’s hoping for a double chocolate cake today !!

    Interestingly bet365 are only bookie offering 1/4th odds the place at 8/1 which is the way to go bog with the drift in price as losing a point on the win worth it for the percentage on the price at the moment as if starts longer then value ensured on the place versus 9/1 at a 1/5th odds

    Good luck Matt

  3. Paul Whitworth

    I have been meaning to follow SOTD for a while now, so when I got the email invite for an impressive,free profit making service, and then discovered the chaps responsible were ‘Matt and Chris’ of Geegeez I just had to sign up.Also,it was a pleasant surprise (and a ‘wierd coincidence’?) to find that it had started on 17th November – my birthday!

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