Stat of the Day, 18th May 2017

Wednesday's Result :

5.15 Worcester : Petiville @ 6/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 Led, ridden and headed approaching 2 out where mistake, kept on same pace in 3rd.

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.15 Perth...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Caius Marcius4/1 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2014, trainer Nicky Richards' handicappers are 88/429 (20.5% SR) for 88pts (+20.5% ROI) profit, of which...

  • those racing at Classes 2 to 4 are 74/328 (22.6%) for 104.2pts (+31.8%)
  • those racing within 60 days of their last run are 70/322 (21.7%) for 93.9pts (+29.2%)
  • 6 to 8 yr olds are 66/272 (24.3%) for 122.9pts (+45.2%)
  • hurdlers are 58/257 (20.2%) for 48.3pts (+18.8%)
  • those priced at 6/1 and shorter are 74/241 (30.7%) for 96.2pts (+39.9%)
  • those ridden by today's jockey, Craig Nichol are 15/82 (18.3%) for 10.9pts (+13.3%)
  • and here at Perth : 11/68 (16.2%) for 12.1pts (+17.8%)

...and another micro/angle for your notebooks based on the above... 6 to 8 yr olds - Classes 2 to 4 - hurdlers - odds of 15/2 and shorter - within 60 days of last run = 22/68 (32.4% SR) for 37.3pts (+54.8% ROI) with those running here at Perth winning 4 of 10 (40%) for 3.08pts (+30.8%) with 4 of the 6 losers making the frame.

All the above data applies here today to Caius Marcius, a 6 yr old gelding who has 4 wins and 3 places from 11 starts to date (3 wins & 3 places from 9 over hurdles) all under the steering of Craig Nichols, including...

  • 3 wins and 3 places from 7 at 2m / 2m 0.5f
  • 3 wins and a place from 7 within 60 days of his last run
  • 3 wins and 2 places from 6 in the March to June period
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 on good ground
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 on good to soft ground, should the rains come
  • 1/1 here at Perth
  • 1/1 over course and distance

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Caius Marcius4/1 BOG which was available from SkyBet Betfair Sports and/or Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Wednesday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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