Stat of the Day, 19th May 2014
Saturday was a strange, but pleasing conclusion to a bit of a topsy-turvy week here at SotD. After a run of unsuccessful selections, we bounced back to form, culminating in Barkston Ash's repeat win for us on Saturday.
He won for us on 17th April and then again on 17th May, so keep an eye out for him on 17th June 😀 , as it was I'd advised a 5/1 bet, in the belief that I was actually happy with 7/2, so I thought I was stealing a point and a half. As it was, the market didn't fancy him and he got home at 7/1: a really nice bonus.
Monday today and the usual type of fayre to start the week: diplomatically I'll call it mediocre. There are possibles at Windsor, but there's no value in the prices, there are the regular USA-bred runners at Southwell, but too many qualifiers with similar profiles running against each other, so I've finally settled on a little bit of a punt in the...
Sometimes we run with smaller sample sizes than normal to try to identify trends/stats and we hope that they are true trends and not just numerical coincidences. That's the case today, whereby the percentages look plenty good enough for SotD, but we're working from a smaller / more recent basis for analysis.
To this end, I'm backing Lion On The Prowl at 6/1 BOG with SkyBet for this Class 5 hurdle over the minimum trip.
1. Lion On The Prowl is trained by Mrs Alex Dunn, who some of you might not have heard much about. In fact she has only had 97 runners in her short training career, but when her "jumpers" have a bit of market support they tend to go well. With her sub-10/1 runners, she has saddled up 11 winners from 41 (26.8% SR) for level stakes profits of 21.3pts (+51.9% ROI) and if we discount/discard those priced below 5/2 (I don't often go lower than that for SotD!), we end up with a record of 7/29 (24.1% SR) for 25.7pts (+88.7% ROI) profits.
(From the final subset of 29 runners, hurdlers are 5/17 for 23.5pts profit!)
2. Lion On The Prowl has an eyecatching jockey booking in the shape of champion jockey AP McCoy, who is certainly more than capable of getting this horse home. Now we all know about AP's thousands of wins over the years and we all know that it's largely unprofitable to follow him blindly, but there are a couple of worthwhile angles we could pursue with the Champ.
In fact, over the last four years, if you'd followed him in 2m non-handicap hurdles contests, you'd have landed 89 winners from 239 bets (37.2% SR) and resultant profits of 47.1pts, or 19.7% of stakes. We can then further refine this according to the odds of the horses he has ridden...
At 12/1 or under: 79/204 (38.7% SR) for 69.5pts (+34.1% ROI)
At 6/1 or under: 75/174 (43.1% SR) for 57.0pts (+32.7% ROI)
At 6/1 or under: 70/149 (47.0% SR) for 45.9pts (+30.8% ROI), you can see a successful pattern emerging.
3. Lion On The Prowl is currently officially rated at 122, but when last hurdling regularly a couple of years ago was in the 130 to 134 range. He's been off chasing since and recently won a point to point race to sharpen him up. He's an interesting proposition back over over hurdles and if he can regain some of his old form, the booking of AP could prove genius.
I think the market is set up for a possible "steal" today and at 6/1 BOG with SkyBet, you could take the E/W option, but they say that fortune favours the brave, so I'm all in with a 1pt win bet on Lion On The Prowl at 6/1 BOG with SkyBet
For all the other firms' prices, simply...
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