Stat of the Day, 18th January 2014
As expected, Crowdmania won last night, but in a race decimated by non-runners, even the early BOG price only paid out at a shade over evens, far too short for SotD.
Our actual selection, Indian Landing, failed to deliver and maintained our current mini dry spell. The horse was well backed from our 5/2 advice and was eventually sent off as the 7/4 favourite, but was outpaced in the final furlong to come home 3rd, some 5 lengths off the pace.
We certainly got the value at the price we took, but that was as good as it got.
A familiar name to regular readers today, as we stay in Ireland for the......
Where I'm backing the 12 yr old veteran Luke's Benefit for the second time in just under three weeks here on SotD and I've just taken 4/1 BOG about him.
He may well be approaching the twilight of his career, but he has never been running as consistently well as he is now and after winning for us on New Years Eve, he completed a hat-trick five days later over this course and distance on soft ground.
Former course and distance winners returning to Naas on the back of a win (anywhere!) last time out have fared very well on their return to Naas in recent years. Since the start of 2008, there has been 16 such winners from 46 runners, a strike rate of 34.8% generating level stakes profits of 27.25pts, an ROI of 59.2%. Those runners priced between 13/8 and 5/1 are 7 from 18 for 5.16pts.
The above figures aren't skewed by a particularly good year five or six years ago either! In the last two years, the record is 8 winners from 18 (44.44% SR) for 21.37pts (+118.7% ROI) profits (4 from 7 for 6.18pts for those in our 13/8 to 5/1 price bracket).
So, that's the general qualifying stat for today, now let's look at Luke's Benefit and today's race in particular.
It's a 2 mile, hurdle on soft ground (heavy in places) at Naas.
1. He has won 9 of his 41 starts to date, but all 9 wins are over this 2m trip from 30 starts = 30% SR. This has returned profits of 17.86pts (+59.5% ROI)
2. His record on soft or heavy ground is 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 10.27pts (46.7% ROI).
3. And at Naas, he has won twice from four attempts for 4.83pts profit.
And from the above, we get:
Over 2m on Soft/Heavy: 7/17 for 15.28pts
Over 2m at Naas: 2/4 for 4.83pts
On Soft/Heavy at Naas: 1/1 for 3.99pts
Over 2m on Soft/Heavy at Naas: 1/1 for 3.99pts
His recent wins have been over the larger obstacles and it is probably over the reverting back to hurdling that let's us get a price of 4/1 BOG here today. But it has to be said that he's no mug over hurdles either, where he's 4/21 for 7pts over this trip.
He also gets to run off a mark a full stone lower than he would over fences, enabling him to maintain his front-running pace here. He'll definitely get the trip and the going, so I think the almost-featherweight he shoulders today could make all the difference to his bid for the 4-timer.
I'm very confident of getting back amongst the winners today, courtesy of a 1pt win bet on Luke's Benefit at a readily available 4/1 BOG. I've placed my bet with Hills today, but for your preferred bookie...