Stat of the Day, 18th February 2016

Wednesday's Result :

5.20 Kempton: Star Links @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Awkwardly away, soon in touch on outer, driven over 2f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong, never troubled leaders)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

3.40 Kelso:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Takingrisks @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding is still unexposed after just three starts showing steady improvement each time in a run reading 421 that culminated in a course and distance win here 51 days ago and he'll now attempt to double up in a race that his trainer/jockey won last year.

Trainer Nicky Richards' horses go well on heavy ground...

...winning 34 of 101 (33.7% SR) for 59.8pts (+59.2% ROI) since the start of 2011, broken down as follows:

  • in races over 2m3.5f to 3m0.5f : 26/60 (43.3% SR) for 76.9pts (+128.2% ROI)
  • in handicaps : 22/58 (37.9% SR) for 55.9pts (+96.3% ROI)
  • over hurdles : 20/57 (35.1% SR) for 43.1pts (+75.6% ROI)
  • at Class 3 : 12/29 (41.4% SR) for 39.9pts (+137.5% ROI)

And in hcp hurdle races at trips shorter than 3m1f : 13/27 (48.2% SR) for 38.8pts at an ROI of 143.8% with Class 3 runners winning 6 of 11 (54.5% SR) for 23.2pts (+210.5% ROI)

Takingrisks won over C&D LTO...

Since the start of 2008, handicap hurdlers with CD next to their name who won last time out (anywhere) went on to score another C&D success on 291 pf 1479 (19.7% SR) occasions, generating level stakes profits of 195.6pts (+13.3% ROI). Such runners turned out 11 to 60 days of that last winning run are 199/1066 (18.7% SR) for 181.3pts (+17.1% ROI), whilst Class 3 handicap hurdlers are 70/323 (21.7% SR) for 174.6pts (+54.2% ROI)

Class 3 runners turned out 11 to 60 days after their last run are 53/239 (22.2% SR) for 173.1pts (+72.4% ROI), with those racing over trips of 2m3f to 3m1f winning 35 of 125 (28% SR) for 196pts (+156.8% ROI).

Takingrisks makes his handicap debut here...

Since the start of 2014 Nicky Richards' handicap debutants are 9 from 18 (50% SR) for 35.3pts (+196.1% ROI) profit with hurdlers winning 8 of 17 (47.1% SR) for 31pts (+182.3% ROI) profit, whilst runners here at Kelso are 2 from 2 for 9.32pts (+466% ROI).

And the trainer/jockey/track stats?

Since the start of 2014 in Kelso handicap hurdle contests, Brian Harding has ridden 5 winners from 10 (50% SR) Nicky Richards runners for level stakes profits of 14.38pts (+143.8% ROI). Horses priced at 11/4 to 9/2 have an exact same record as those competing over 2m2f to 3m2f, which stands at 5 wins from 8 (62.5% SR) for 16.38pts (+204.75% ROI) profit.

Those priced at 11/4 to 9/2 who are also running over the 2m2f to 3m2f trip range are 5 from 7 (71.4% SR) for 17.38pts at an ROI of 248.3%.

And today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Takingrisks at 7/2 BOG with either Bet365, BetVictor or Paddy Power (Betfred/Totesport/Ladbrokes also offer 7/2, but don't/won't go BOG until the morning). To see the fuller picture...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Kelso

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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